传统村落木结构民居灭火救援成功概率分析

Analysis on the success probability of fire fighting and rescue in traditional village timberwork dwellings

为研究消防队扑救传统村落木结构建筑火灾的成功概率及火灾下建筑构件剩余承载时间,结合消防队介入模型(FBIM)和Benichou模型确定消防队灭火成功概率,在此基础上利用Monte Carlo模拟分析相关参数不确定性的影响,最终得到灭火救援成功概率和介入时构件的剩余承载时间。使用上述方法分析了某传统村落典型木结构民居,在实测交通流数据和消防队业务训练数据的基础上,计算得到灭火成功概率和构件剩余承载时间的概率分布,结果表明:由于木结构民居轰燃时间较短、消防行车距离较远,该村落的灭火成功概率仅44.5%,消防队到达时,楼板剩余承载时间不到5 min。从灭火救援角度考虑,提出了应缩短消防行车距离、增设微型消防站以提升灭火救援成功率的改进措施。

This paper is to study the success probability of fire brigade extinguish the traditional village timberwork building fire and the remaining load time of element under fire.The Fire Brigade Intervention Model(FBIM) and Benichou model were combined to determine the success probability of firefighting.Based on this,Monte Carlo simulation was used to analyze the influence of relevant parameters’ uncertainty.Finally,the success probability of firefighting and the element’s remaining load time when the fire brigade intervened was.The above method was used to analyze the typical timberwork dwellings in a village.Based on the traffic data and the fire brigade training data,the distribution of the firefighting success probability and the element remaining load time was calculated.The results show that: Due to the short flashover time and long distance of firefighting,the firefighting success probability is only 44.5%.When the fire brigade arrives,the remaining load time of the floor is less than 5 minutes.From the perspective of firefighting and rescue,the firefighting distance should be shortened and the micro-fire station should be added to improve the success probability of firefighting.