中国数字经济发展综合评价与预测

Comprehensive Evaluation and Prediction on China’s Digital Economy Development

文章结合数字经济的内涵和外延,分别从数字基础设施、数字产业化、产业数字化等方面构建了数字经济发展水平量化指标体系,基于熵值法测度了中国2010—2018年数字经济发展趋势,并建立灰色预测模型对2019—2028年的数字经济发展走向进行预测。研究结果表明:2010—2018年,中国数字经济发展水平增长了4.4倍,年均增速达到50%,2019—2028年,中国数字经济发展水平增速将不断提高,预计2028年数字经济发展水平将是2018年的5倍。因此,我国要进一步推动新型数字经济基础设施建设,加快传统产业的数字化转型,积极发展电信业等数字产业,以保障我国数字经济快速发展。

Combining the connotation and denotation of digital economy,this paper constructs the quantitative index system of digital economy development level from the aspects of digital infrastructure,digital industrialization and industrial digitalization,then measures the development trend of China’s digital economy from 2010 to 2018 based on the entropy method,and finally establishes a grey prediction model to predict the development trend of the digital economy from 2019 to 2028.The results show that the development level of China’s digital economy increased by 4.4 times from 2010 to 2018,with an average annual growth rate of50%,that the growth rate of China’s digital economy will continue to increase from 2019 to 2028,and it is expected that the development level of digital economy in 2028 will be 5 times that of 2018.Therefore,China should further promote the construction of new digital economy infrastructure,accelerate the digital transformation of traditional industries,and actively develop digital industries such as telecommunications to ensure the rapid development of China’s digital economy.