苏联解体的长时段考量——文明史视角的探讨

The Disintegration of the Soviet Union in the Longue Durée: Discussion from the Perspective of Civilization History

从文明史的长时段视角探讨苏联解体问题,不仅必要,且国内国际学界已有初步积累。第一,"比较-结构"方法是较早的尝试。也即,从不同历史时段条件下的多民族关系的聚合性、传统治理模式多大程度存在中介性协调机制、文明所处的区位独特性等方面差异,探视苏联解体的端倪。第二,世纪之交以来,帝国形态研究、作为文明现象的苏联总体研究、以及文明与地缘政治相互关系等领域的探讨,指出文明与帝国现象相交织,大陆性帝国中央权力式微与周边动荡的紧密关联,是导致帝国解体的重要因素;帝国抱负过大、内外挑战前所未有,则是其崩溃的经典式动因。至于把苏联现象作为一个文明单位来系统考察,观察多民族构建、思想文化与意识形态建设以及如何处理外部关系,乃为事关苏联前途的关键问题,而苏联解体也恰恰缘起于这三个重大问题。同时,文明演进过程始终难以离开各大文明间的相互激荡,如果说,苏联解体也反射着美欧等文明单位先后趋于衰落,那么古巴导弹危机、1968年捷克斯洛伐克事件、1979年入侵阿富汗这三大扩张则明显表明:帝国对外扩张与国内的体制改革进程存在着紧密的相互关联。改革停滞,无疑是导致苏联解体的诱因。第三,文明演进过程中思想史的传递、演绎,特别是若干关键范畴的承继与缺失,对文明发展具有何种意义?特别是文明结合部条件下,思想史演绎与体现为民族心理与行为特征的"极化"的文明结构这两者之间存在着何种关系?这些问题对研究俄文明与苏联解体间的关联性十分重要。尤其是对"适度"这一思想行为范畴的研讨,有利于剖视苏联解体的深层动因。第四,本质主义与非本质主义的文明研究方法似已并不限于纯学术讨论,开始参与新兴国家与既存霸权之间的合作与竞争过程。本文主张在尊重各自文明存在的客观前提下,互学互鉴,避免文明冲突。由此,从文明史的视角探讨苏联解体问题,将长时段演进与中、短时段的变化相互结合起来进行考察,有益于对苏联解体的深层结构的认知,也有益于"人类文明新形态"建设取得借鉴。

It is not only necessary but also possible to discuss the disintegration of the Soviet Union from the longue durée perspective of the history of civilization. First, the “comparison-structure” approach is an earlier attempt, that is, to explore the cohesion of multi-ethnic relations during different periods, to what extent there is an intermediary coordination mechanism in traditional governance models, and differences in such fields as locations of civilizations, and to seek clues of the disintegration of the Soviet Union. Second,since the turn of the century, the study of empire forms, the overall research of the Soviet Union as a civilization phenomenon and the discussion of relationship between civilization and geopolitics have all pointed out the intertwined linkage of civilization and empire phenomena. The close connection between the decline of central powers of continental empires and their neighbors’ turmoil directly led to the disintegration of empires. An empire’s excessive ambitions, unprecedented internal and external challenges are classic causes of its collapse. As for the systematic investigation into the Soviet phenomenon as a civilization unit,careful observation of the multi-ethnic, cultural and ideological construction and how to deal with external relations are key to the future of the Soviet Union. As a matter of fact, the disintegration of the Soviet Union is precisely due to these three issues. Meanwhile, the civilization could hardly evolve without mutual influences among civilizations. If the disintegration of the Soviet Union also reflects the successive decline of civilization units such as the United States and Europe, the three expansions namely the Cuban missile crisis, the Czechoslovak incident in 1968, and the invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 clearly show that an empire’s external expansion is closely related with its domestic system reform.The stagnation in reform is undoubtedly one cause which led to the disintegration of the Soviet Union. Third, what is the significance of the transmission and deduction of the history of thought during the civilization evolution, especially the inheritance and lack of certain key categories, to the development of civilization? In particular, at the intersection of civilizations, what is the relationship between the deduction of the history of thought and the polarized civilization structure embodied as national psychology and behaviors? The discussion on the “clementia”, category in thought and behavior, is conducive to analyze root causes of the disintegration of the Soviet Union. Fourth, it seems that essentialism and post-essentialism civilization research approaches are not just limited to pure academic discussions. They have already been used in observing cooperation and competition between emerging economies and the hegemon. This article advocates that under the objective premise of respecting the existence of their respective civilizations, countries should learn from each other and avoid conflicts among civilizations. Therefore, it is beneficial to understand better the internal structure of the disintegration of the Soviet Union through exploring the long-term evolution and changes in the medium and short-term from a perspective of the history of civilization.