华北平原城市绿色发展效率时空演变趋势及影响因素

Analysis of the spatial and temporal evolutionary trends and influencing factors of green development efficiency of major cities in the North China Plain

基于华北平原57座主要城市的面板数据,采用非导向Super-SBM模型对其在2010—2019年间的绿色发展效率进行测算,并分析其时空演变特征。利用Tobit模型对华北平原绿色发展效率的影响因素进行分析,最后使用GWR模型探究各影响因素对绿色发展效率影响程度的空间差异性。结果表明:华北平原内部绿色发展效率呈现出地域差异性,华北平原整体的绿色发展效率虽有反复,但整体在提升。华北平原的绿色发展高效率区整体呈现"S"型分布特征,且正趋向于均衡发展。经济发展水平、环境规制对绿色发展效率有显著的促进作用,而就业结构对绿色发展效率有阻碍作用,受教育水平与绿色发展效率呈现先降后升的"U"型变化关系,不同影响因素对绿色发展效率的影响也存在空间差异性。

Based on the panel data of 57 major cities on the North China Plain,the non-oriented Super-SBM model is used to measure the green development efficiency of 57 major cities in the 10 years from 2010 to 2019,their temporal and spatial evolution characteristics are analyzed,and then the Tobit model is used to analyze the influencing factors of the green development efficiency of the North China Plain,and finally the GWR model is used to explore the spatial difference of the degree of influence of each influencing factor on the green development efficiency.The results show that the green development efficiency within the North China Plain shows regional differences,and the overall green development efficiency of the North China Plain is advancing in twists and turns;the green development high-efficiency area of the North China Plain shows an"S"-shaped distribution as a whole,and it is tending to develop in a balanced manner.Economic development level and environmental regulations have a significant role in promoting green development efficiency,while employment structure has a hindering effect.Education level and green development efficiency show a"U"-shaped change relationship that first declines and then rises.Different influencing factors affect green development.There are also spatial differences in the degree of influence of efficiency.