气候变化及人类活动对贵州省1998~2018年NDVI的影响

Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on NDVI in Guizhou Province from 1998 to 2018

基于生长季的植被NDVI数据和气象数据及土地利用数据,利用趋势分析法和多元回归残差分析法分析贵州省1998~2018年植被NDVI时空变化特征,探讨其与气候因素及人类活动之间的关系。结果表明:(1)贵州省近21a植被NDVI年际变化以0.63×^(2)a^(-1)(P<0.01)的速率震荡上升,约有88.05%的区域植被NDVI呈增加趋势,仅有1.12%的像元呈减小趋势;9个市州植被NDVI增速在0.84×^(2)a^(-1)(六盘水)~0.42×10^(2)a^(-1)(黔东南)之间。(2)近21a,气候变化贡献率超过50%的地区主要有黔东南和贵阳两个地区,而人类活动和气候变化共同作用的区域贡献率超过50%的地区7个,贡献率占比较高为六盘水(73.67%),其余贡献率均在70%以下。(3)总体上来说,气候变化对贵州省植被起促进作用,人类活动的促进作用大于抑制作用,即气候变化和人类活动的共同作用是贵州省多数地区植被恢复的原因。

Based on the vegetation NDVI data,meteorological data and land use data of the growing season,trend analysis and multiple regression residual analysis are used to analyze the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of vegetation NDVI in Guizhou province from 1998 to 2018,and the relationship between vegetation NDVI and climatic factors and human activities is discussed.The results show that:(1)In Guizhou province,the annual variation of NDVI of vegetation in nearly 21 a increased with a rate of 0.63×^(2)a^(-1)(P<0.01),and about 88.05%of the regional vegetation NDVI presented an increasing trend,while only 1.12%of the pixel presented a decreasing trend.The growth rate of vegetation NDVI in 9 cities and counties ranged from 0.84×^(2)a^(-1)(Liupanshui)to 0.42×^(2)a^(-1)(Qiandongnan).(2)In the near 21 a,Qiandongnan and Guiyang are the two regions that contribute more than 50%to climate change,while seven regions contribute more than 50%to human activities and climate change,with a relatively high contribution rate of Liupanshui(73.67%),and the rest all contribute less than 70%.(3)Generally speaking,in the past 21 years,climate change has promoted vegetation in Guizhou province,and the promotion effect of human activities is greater than the inhibition effect,that is,the joint effect of climate change and human activities is the reason for vegetation restoration in most areas of Guizhou province.