基于系统动力学的长江经济带生态安全预警研究

Study on Ecological Security Early Warning of Yangtze River Economic Belt Based on System Dynamics

随着长江经济带城市化进程加快,一系列生态安全问题相伴而生,严重制约了长江经济带的发展。生态安全预警研究有助于及时发现威胁生态安全的因素,并对未来生态安全发展趋势进行预测预警,做到"事前控制"。以长江经济带11个省市全流域为研究区域,基于PSR概念模型构建生态安全预警指标体系,然后运用系统动力学理论建立城市生态安全系统仿真模型,旨在揭示长江经济带2007~2025年的生态安全变化特征,为生态安全预警提供理论依据。结果表明:(1)2007~2025年长江经济带整体生态安全水平逐年提升,2013年后提升趋势更为显著;(2)区域间的生态安全状态差异显著,呈现"东西较高,中间较低"的空间特征;(3)在具体指标上,固定资产投资完成额、城镇化率、环保投资占GDP比重对生态安全压力、状态和响应的影响最大。

With the acceleration of urbanization in the Yangtze River economic belt,a series of ecological security problems have emerged,which seriously restrict the development of the Yangtze River economic belt.The research on ecological security early warning is helpful to discover the factors threatening ecological security in time,and forecast and warn the future development trend of ecological security,so as to achieve“pre-control”.This article takes the whole basin of“eleven provinces and cities”in the Yangtze River economic belt as the research area,and constructs an ecological security early warning index system based on the PSR model.Then,establishes a simulation model of urban ecological security system by the system dynamics theory,which aiming to reveal the characteristics of ecological security changes in the Yangtze River economic belt from 2007 to 2025 and provide a theoretical basis for ecological security early warning.The research show that:(1)From 2007 to 2025,the overall ecological security level of 11 provinces in the Yangtze River Economic Belt will increase year by year,and the trend will be more significant after 2013.(2)The difference of ecological security between regions is significant,showing the spatial characteristics of“higher in the East and West,lower in the middle”.(3)In terms of indicators,fixed asset investment,urbanization rate and the proportion of environmental protection investment in GDP have the greatest impact on the pressure,state and response of ecological security.