基于技术生命周期的中美人工智能原始创新能力研究

Research on the Original Innovation Capability of Artificial Intelligence

文中以1950—2020年中美两国人工智能关键技术专利为数据源,基于技术生命周期理论,采用Logistic模型进行拟合分析,对中美人工智能原始创新能力进行比较。研究发现,中美人工智能原始创新能力发展水平不一,从技术生命周期来看,中国人工智能技术生命周期目前尚处于成长期,而美国已进入成熟期;中国人工智能技术专利申请数量和速度均领先于美国,特别是跨媒体分析推理、自主无人系统和自然语言处理技术的专利申请增速较快。最后,结合Logistic模型拟合结果,进一步分析了未来中美人工智能原始创新能力演化与跃迁路径,提出了面向2035年远景目标的我国人工智能关键领域提升原始创新能力的相关政策建议。

By collecting the patents data of artificial intelligence key core technology from 1950 to 2020 and according to the technology life cycle theory,it dynamically compares the original innovation capability of the artificial intelligence between China and America by using the Logistic model.It is found that the development levels of artificial intelligence original innovation capabilities in China and America are different.Based on the technology life cycle,the development of China's artificial intelligence is still in the formative stage,whereas America has progressed to the mature stage.China is outpacing America in terms of the number and speed of patent applications for artificial intelligence,particularly in the areas of cross-media analysis and reasoning,autonomous unmanned systems and natural language processing,which are all growing faster.Finally,the Logistic model fitting results are combined to further investigate the evolutionary path of the artificial intelligence original innovation in China and America.At the same time,policy recommendations are proposed to enhance the original innovation capability in the key areas of artificial intelligence for the visionary goal of 2035.