林业资源型城市生态-经济-社会协调发展的定量测度——以黑龙江省伊春市为例

Quantitative investigation of the coordinated development of ecology-economy-society in forest resource-based city:A case study of Yichun,Heilongjiang Province

把握城市独特的生态-经济-社会系统协调优化特性是实现林业资源型城市可持续发展的重要前提。研究从生态、经济、社会3个维度构建了林业资源型城市复合系统的测度评价指标体系,应用熵值法、耦合协调度模型,采用2005—2018年时段生态、经济、社会数据,对伊春协调发展状况进行实证测度评价,运用障碍度模型分析影响系统协调发展的主要因素,采用GM(1,1)灰色预测模型进行发展预测。结果表明:(1)综合发展指数呈上升态势,促进生态-经济-社会综合发展的主要动能历经了从生态到经济,再到生态为主要动力的发展过程,三个子系统发展水平呈趋同态势,推动三维系统的均衡协同是未来发展的重要方向;(2)三维系统耦合度稳定在较高水平,系统间相互依赖、相互作用程度较高,协调度呈波动上升,实现了由勉强协调、经济滞后发展向良好协调、同步发展的转变,协调状态趋向良好;(3)三维系统中社会子系统对协调发展的障碍度最大;人口自然增长率、建成区绿化覆盖率、GDP增长率、第三产业就业人数比重4个指标是制约近期协调发展的主要障碍因子;(4)2019—2030年,生态、经济、社会子系统发展指数及协调度的预测值均呈上升态势,生态-经济-社会复合系统将向更高级的协调发展状态演进,经济发展将再次成为促进生态-经济-社会综合发展的主要动力;加强生态建设,引领生态创新,大力发展生态经济,提高社会发展水平,着力降低障碍因子对协调发展的阻力作用,实现生态-经济-社会的联动健康发展是伊春未来重要的努力方向。

Understanding the city's unique ecological-economic-social system coordination and optimization characteristics is an important prerequisite for achieving sustainable development of forestry resource-based cities.This study constructed a measurement and evaluation index system of the forestry resource-based city composite system from three dimensions of ecology,economy and society.Entropy method and coupling coordination degree model were used to evaluate the coordinated development of Yichun City by using the ecological,economic,and social data from 2005 to 2018.The obstacle degree model was used to analyze the main factors that affected the coordinated development and the GM(1,1)gray forecast model was used for development prediction.The results show that:(1)the comprehensive development index is on the rise.The main driving force to promote the comprehensive development of ecology,economy and society has gone through the development process from ecology to economy,and then ecology as the main driving force.On the whole,the development momentum is increasingly converging.Promoting the balanced coordination of the three-dimensional system is an important direction for future development.(2)The coupling degree of the three-dimensional system is stable at a relatively high level.The interdependence and interaction between the subsystems are relatively high and the degree of coordination fluctuates,which realizes the transformation from barely coordinated and backward economic development to good coordinated and synchronous development.The state of coordination tends to be good;(3)The social subsystem in the three-dimensional system has the greatest obstacle to the coordinated development.Four indicators,including the natural population growth rate,the green coverage rate of the built-up area,the GDP growth rate,and the proportion of employment in the tertiary industry,are the main obstacle factors restricting the near-term coordinated development;(4)From 2019 to 2030,the development index of ecological,economic,and social subsystem and the predicted value of coordination are all on the rise,which means the ecological-economic-social comprehensive system would evolve to a better state of coordination development,among which the economic subsystem will once again be the main driving force to push the ecological-economic-social comprehensive development of the city.It is suggested that Yichun should put its emphasis on strengthening the ecological construction,guiding ecological innovation,striving to developing ecological economy,improving the level of social development,making efforts to reduce the resistance of obstacle factors to coordinated development,and realizing the linkage and healthy development of the three,which is an important direction for the future development of Yichun.