2021年天然橡胶期货市场回顾及2022年展望

Review of Natural Rubber Futures Market in 2021 and Prospect in 2022

2021年天然橡胶期货市场走势基本呈“N”字形。由于天然橡胶绝对价格不低,而且目前无抑制2022年天然橡胶供应的可见因素,加上全球GDP增速相对较高的预期,预计2022年全球天然橡胶供需双增长。2022年,我国天然橡胶产量增速预计为2%~6%;在海外其他地区需求复苏分流原料的背景下,预计我国天然橡胶进口量最多恢复至2017和2018年的水平,表观供应量增速预计为4%~6%;随着疫情得到控制,中国轮胎出口订单存在回流海外市场的可能,轮胎出口的增长不确定,内需亮点在乘用车销售以及重型卡车替换轮胎需求的修复。只要国内天然橡胶需求不出现下滑,显性库存会继续下降,2022年度天然橡胶价格重心偏向于上行,波段的价格会受到轮胎产量同比变化的影响,上半年天然橡胶价格会趋于持续上涨,下半年的变数则会增多。2022年RU主力合约价格的波动区间为每吨13000~18000元,NR主力合约价格的波动区间为每吨11000~14000元。

The trend of natural rubber futures market in 2021 is basically in the shape of“N”.As the absolute price of natural rubber is not low,and there are no visible factors inhibiting the supply of natural rubber in 2022,coupled with the expectation of relatively high global GDP growth,it is expected that the global natural rubber supply and demand will increase in 2022.In 2022,the growth rate of China’s natural rubber production is expected to be 2%~6%.Under the background of demand recovery in other overseas regions and diversion of raw materials,China’s natural rubber import is expected to recover to the level in 2017 to 2018 at most,and the growth rate of apparent supply is expected to be 4%~6%.With the epidemic situation under control,China’s tire export orders may return to the overseas market,and the growth of tire export is uncertain.The highlights of domestic demand are the sales of passenger cars and the repair of the demand for replacement tires of heavy trucks.As long as the domestic demand for natural rubber does not decline,the dominant inventory of domestic natural rubber will continue to decline.In 2022,the price focus of natural rubber tends to rise,and the price of band will be affected by the change of tire output year-onyear.The price of natural rubber will tend to rise continuously in the first half of the year,and the uncertainty will increase in the second half.In 2022,the fluctuation range of RU main contract price is 13000~18000 yuan per ton,and the fluctuation range of NR main contract price is 11000~14000 yuan per ton.