我国交通运输业碳排放的典型特征辨析

Typical Characteristics of Carbon Emissions from the Transportation Industry of China

交通业是实现我国"碳达峰、碳中和"目标的重要发力点。根据相关研究,发现我国交通业碳排放存在两大特征:一是交通碳排放占总排放的比例低于世界平均水平;二是我国交通运输业碳达峰时间有较大可能相对滞后。针对特征一,运用神经网络识别出人均GDP、人口密度等主要影响因素,并进一步从人均交通碳排放、累计排放和排放结构三方面论述我国交通碳排放占比低的内在原因;针对特征二,横向对比发达国家碳达峰时的统计数据,从出行需求、交通能源、碳达峰情景等方面论述目前我国交通碳排放尚有较大增长空间,认为实现交通业与其他行业同步碳达峰将是一项艰巨而富有挑战的任务。

The transportation industry is an important part to achieve the goal of carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality in China.Based on related studies,two major characteristics of carbon emissions from the transportation industry in China are identified.Firstly,the proportion of transportation carbon emissions to total emissions is lower than the world average.Secondly,there may be a lag in the time to reach the carbon emission peak in the transportation industry compared with other industries.For the first characteristic,neural network is used to identify the main influencing factors such as GDP per capita and population density,and the intrinsic reasons for the low share of transportation carbon emissions in China are discussed from three aspects:carbon emissions per capita,statistical caliber and emission structure.For the second characteristic,this paper discusses that there is still much room for growth in China’s transportation carbon emissions.Comparing the statistics of developed countries at the time of carbon emission peak,the result shows that it will be a difficult and challenging task to reach carbon emission peak in the transportation industry at the same time with other industries.