融合两阶段过程模型和改进Bass模型的网络社交平台上产品信息扩散研究

Research on Product Information Diffusion on Social Networking Platform by Integrating Two-Stage Process Model and Improved Bass Model

提出并验证了融合两阶段过程模型和改进Bass模型的网络社交平台上产品信息扩散模型。考虑用户转发动机构建产品信息扩散两阶段过程模型;考虑用户兴趣衰减效应改进Bass模型;融合这两个模型,考虑产品信息发布者明星效应、产品信息质量对产品信息扩散的影响,提出了产品信息扩散模型。以2019年11~12月新浪电影发布的电影预告片转发数据验证了所提模型,并与Bass模型进行了比较。结果表明,用户转发动机和用户兴趣衰减效应对产品信息扩散均有显著影响,所提模型的预测精度和拟合效果均优于Bass模型。所提模型可用于存在不同转发动机及具有衰减效应的其他信息转发量预测,尤其适合于在产品信息投放前期和早期对转发量的预测,是对信息扩散模型的补充。

This paper proposes and illustrates a product information diffusion model on a social network platform that integrates two-stage process model and improved Bass model.The two-stage process model of product information diffusion is established by considering the user’s forwarding motivation;the Bass model is improved by considering the user’s interest attenuation effect;and the product information diffusion model is proposed by combining the two-stage process model and the improved Bass model.The diffusion model is illustrated with diffusion data from movie trailers released by Sina Movies from November to December 2019,and the results are compared with the Bass model results.The results show that both user forward motivation and user interest attenuation effect have significant effects on product information diffusion;and the model are better than the Bass model in prediction accuracy and goodness of fit.The proposed model can be used to predict the forwarding amount of other information with different forwarding motivations and attenuation effects,and is especially suitable for the prediction of forwarding amount before and at the early stage of product information release,which is a supplement to the information diffusion model.