居民资产配置和选择偏好对杠杆率的影响--基于云南省的实证研究

The Asset Allocation,the Family Preferences and the Household Leverage--Based on an empirical study in Yunnan Province

本文基于微观居民家庭资产负债调查数据,测算区域性居民杠杆率水平,运用广义可加模型探索居民家庭杠杆率与资产配置的关系,并通过分段回归定量分析明确家庭不同选择对杠杆率的影响。研究结果表明:云南省居民杠杆率总体不高,若住房价格保持稳定,则风险可控。其中,刚需购房者、商铺投资人、经济型汽车车主等资产负债率相对较高;居民杠杆率与家庭成员平均年龄、金融资产占比成反比,与家庭抚养孩子数量成正比。据此,本文建议:政府相关部门应做好房地产调控、完善社会保障体系,引导居民合理负债。

Based on the micro data from the survey of household assets and liabilities,we measure the level of re‐gional household leverage and use the generalized additive model to explore the relationship between household leverage and asset allocation.We also analyze the impact of family preferences on household leverage through the piecewise linear regression.The results show that the overall household leverage in Yunnan Province is low and the risks are under con‐trol if housing prices are stable.Furthermore,the debt-to-asset ratio is higher for the families who have rigid demand on holding residential property,investment demand on commercial property,and demand on buying economic automobile.In addition,there are negative correlations between the household leverage and the average age of family members as well as between the household leverage and the proportion of household financial assets.Besides,there is positive correlation between the household leverage and the number of children in a family.Accordingly,we suggest to stabilize the housing prices,improve the social security system and guide residents to keep a reasonable debt scale.