双循环新格局背景下我国经济增长的影响因素探究

Explore the Influencing Factors of China's Economic Growth Under the Background of the New Dual-cycle Pattern

本文通过状态空间模型对我国经济增长的影响因素进行实证分析。研究发现:消费、投资、政府支出和出口都是影响我国经济增长的主要因素,消费弹性从高位波动下降;投资和政府支出弹性都波动上升,投资对经济增长的拉动作用更有效;出口弹性逐渐稳定在0.06附近。

Empirically evaluate the influencing factors of China's economic growth through the state space model,and provide suggestions for promoting economic development.Research methods:Empirical analysis of the influencing fac‐tors of China's economic growth through ADF test,co-integration test,state space model and other methods.The study found that consumption,investment,government spending and exports are all major factors affecting China's economic growth.Among them,consumption elasticity fluctuates from a high level and declines.Investment and government expen‐diture elasticities both fluctuate and rise,and investment has a more effective pulling effect on economic growth.Export elasticity gradually stabilizes around 0.06.Research innovation:Based on the economic decision theory of the four sec‐tors,the research theory of economic growth is expanded.In the empirical research,not only the static equilibrium relation‐ship between variables is analyzed,but also the dynamic relationship between variables is explained.Research value:Pro‐vide reference for identifying economic growth points and promoting economic growth.