人民币汇率变动对中国乳制品贸易的影响研究

Study on the Influence of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuation on Chinese Dairy Products Trade

基于2000—2019年数据,以中国乳制品进口额为被解释变量,人民币汇率、国内生产总值指数、国内居民消费价格指数、液体乳及乳制品类商品零售价格指数、牛奶产量为解释变量,利用多元线性回归以及多元线性分层回归的计量经济方法,分析人民币汇率变动对中国乳制品贸易的影响。结果表明:在直接标价法下,人民币汇率、牛奶产量与中国乳制品进口额呈反向变动关系,且牛奶产量对中国乳制品进口额的影响更大。根据研究结论,提出完善乳制品市场监管、提高人民币国际地位与提升中国乳制品国际影响力三方面建议。

Based on the data from 2000 to 2019,the import amount of dairy products in China is taken as the explained variable,RMB exchange rate(the RMB exchange rate mentioned in this paper refers to the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar),GDP index,domestic consumer price index,retail price index of liquid milk and dairy products,milk production as the explained variable.Using the econometric methods of multiple linear regression and multiple linear stratified regression,this paper analyzes the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on China’s dairy trade.The results show that RMB exchange rate,milk production and China’s dairy imports have a reverse change relationship under the direct pricing method,and milk production has a greater impact on China’s dairy imports.According to the above conclusions,this paper puts forward suggestions from three aspects:improving the dairy market supervision,improving the international status of RMB and enhancing the international influence of Chinese dairy products.