中国区域低温天气及其对风力发电影响的统计

Statistics of Cold Weather and Its Impact on Wind Power Generation in China

罕见低温天气可能导致大规模风电机组非计划停运,威胁电力系统的可靠安全运行。研究低温天气对风力发电停运容量影响的时空规律,对于未来高比例甚至100%可再生能源电力系统的发展,具有重要意义。以风力发电机组的设计运行温度下限为阈值,关注低于阈值的低温天气。结合全国2481个地面气象站点历史48年(1970—2017年)的日气温观测数据及国家电网有限公司经营区的实际风电场分布数据,从发生频率、持续时间、反复穿越阈值次数、影响国土面积、风电停运容量等指标,对中国区域低温天气及其对风力发电的影响进行了统计分析,并总结了低温天气对风力发电的影响规律,可为未来高比例可再生能源电力系统的规划和运行提供基础。

Rare cold weather may cause unplanned shutdown of large-scale wind turbines,threatening the reliable and safe operation of the power system.Analyzing the temporal and spatial statistical laws of the impact of low temperature weather on wind power outage capacity is of great significance to the development of a high percentage or even 100%renewable energy power system in the future.This paper takes the lower bound of the designed operating temperature of the wind turbine as the threshold,and focuses on the cold weather with ambient temperature below the threshold.A statistical analysis of the low cold weather in China and its impact on wind power generation is conducted based on the 48-year(1970-2017)daily temperature observation data of the country’s 2481 ground weather stations and actual wind farm distribution information belonged to the State Grid Corporation of China.The occurrence frequency,duration,times of repeatedly crossing thresholds,affected area and outage wind capacity are taken as indicators for the analysis.The results of this study can provide a basis for the planning and operation of high-proportion renewable energy power systems in the future.