中国农业经济韧性的空间差异与影响因素识别

Spatial Disparities and Identification of Influencing Factors on Agricultural Economic Resilience in China

本文通过指标体系法对2009—2018年中国31个省(自治区、直辖市)的农业经济韧性进行综合测算,明确其空间差异特征,同时借助泰尔指数法分解其空间差异的主要来源,在此基础上运用地理探测器模型对农业经济韧性的影响因素进行有效性识别。结果表明:①中国各省(自治区、直辖市)的农业经济韧性均呈明显上升趋势。从省际来看,山东农业经济韧性均值最高,西藏最低。从区域来看,中部地区农业经济韧性最高,且高于全国平均水平,西部地区农业经济韧性明显低于其他地区。②中国农业经济韧性的总体差异、区域内及区域间差异均呈不断缩小的趋势。通过对农业经济韧性空间差异的泰尔指数分解可以发现,这种差异主要来源于区域内差异,而区域内差异主要由西部地区省际差异引起。③政府支持力度、农业基础设施建设、地区市场规模与环境规制强度是影响中国农业经济韧性的主要因素,农业经济规模与科技投入水平对农业经济韧性的影响力相对较弱。不同影响因子两两之间的交互作用均表现非线性增强与双因子增强两种类型。

Using the index system method,this paper conducts a comprehensive measurement of agricultural economic resilience of 31 provinces(cities,districts)in China from 2009 to 2018,clarifies the characteristics of their spatial disparities,and at the same time using the Theil index method to decompose the main sources of their spatial disparities.On this basis,the geographic detector model is used to effectively identify the influencing factors of agricultural economic resilience.The results are as follows.First,the agricultural economic resilience of 31 provinces(cities,districts)in China has shown an obvious upward trend.Among the provinces,Shandong Province has the highest average agricultural economic resilience and the Tibet Autonomous Region has the lowest.Among regions,the agricultural economic resilience of the central region is the highest,which is higher than the national average,and the agricultural economic resilience of the western region is significantly lower than that of other regions.Second,the overall difference,intra-regional differences and inter-regional differences of China’s agricultural economy resilience are all showing a shrinking trend.Through the Theil index decomposition of the spatial disparities in agricultural economic resilience,it can be found that this difference is mainly caused by intra-regional differences,and the intra-regional differences are mainly caused by inter-provincial differences in the western region.Third,government support,agricultural infrastructure,regional market scale and environmental regulation are main factors that affect China’s agricultural economic resilience.The scale of agricultural economy and the level of scientific and technological investment have relatively weak influence on agricultural economic resilience.The impact factors are enhanced by each other,including two-factor enhancement and non-linear enhancement.