需求、结构及竞争力对中国及东盟纺织品输美波动的影响——基于修正CMS模型的实证分析

The Influence of Demand,Structure and Competitiveness on the Fluctuation of Textile Exports from China and ASEAN to the US--An Analysis Based on Modified CMS Model

本文基于UN Comtrade数据,通过修正的恒定市场份额模型(CMS模型),研究了需求、结构和竞争力对中国与东盟纺织品输美波动的影响,结果发现:对于纺织品整体,竞争力效应是导致中国及东盟纺织品出口波动的最重要因素,但近年来中国纺织品整体竞争劣势明显、东盟整体竞争力效应及特定纺织品竞争力效应均增强;增长效应和产品效应对中国及东盟纺织品出口增长的作用方向呈现出阶段性变化特征,且产品效应对出口增长影响程度均较小。从分类产品来看,整体上增长效应对中国纺织原料、制成品输美增长的拉动作用弱于东盟,产品效应对中国中间制品、制成品输美增长的正向拉动作用强于东盟,竞争力效应对中国纺织原料、制成品输美增长的正向拉动作用强于东盟。

Based on the data from UN Comtrade,modified Constant Market Share(CMS)model is applied to explore the causes of fluctuation in textile export from China and ASEAN countries to the United States,results show that:for the overall textiles,competition effect is the most important factor leading to the fluctuation of China’s and ASEAN’s textile export.However,in recent years,the overall competitive disadvantage of China’s textile industry is obvious,while the overall competitive advantage and the specific competitive advantage of ASEAN’s textiles industry are enhanced;the effect of growth effect and product effect on China’s and ASEAN’s textile export growth show characteristics of periodic changes.The product effect has little influence on all kinds of textiles exported from China and ASEAN to the United States.From the perspective of categorized products,on the whole,the driving effect of growth effect on the export growth of China’s textile raw materials and finished products to the United States is weaker than ASEAN’s,the positive driving effect of product effect on the export growth of China’s intermediate products and finished products to the United States is stronger than ASEAN’s,and the positive driving effect of competition effect on the export growth of China’s textile raw materials and finished products to the United States is stronger than ASEAN’s.