天津市人口结构变化对产业结构优化升级的影响研究

Effect of population structure change on the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure in Tianjin

基于1999—2019年天津市数据,从人口结构的视角,探讨其对产业结构优化升级的作用机理,实证研究天津市人口的年龄结构、教育结构、城乡结构以及就业结构对产业结构优化升级的作用与影响。无论采用OLS还是2SLS回归,实证结果均表明,少儿人口抚养比与老年人口抚养比对产业结构优化升级的作用方向不一致,其中,少儿人口抚养比的提高会抑制天津市产业结构优化升级,而老年人口抚养比的提高会对其产生促进作用,但结果不显著;此外,天津市大专及以上学历人口所占比重、人口城乡比、第三产业就业人员与全部就业人员之比的上升均对产业结构优化升级起促进作用。因此,天津市政府应积极引导人口结构的良性变动,并针对人口结构的变动制定有效的经济政策和产业政策。

Based on the data of Tianjin from 1999 to 2019,this paper discusses the mechanism of effect of population structure on the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure,and makes an empirical study of effects of age structure,education structure,urban-rural structure and employment structure of Tianjin’s population on the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure.The empirical results of OLS regression or 2SLS regression show that the effects of the children and seniors’dependency ratio and the old-age dependency ratio on the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure are different in the direction,and the rise in the children and seniors’dependency ratio may inhibit the optimization and upgrading of Tianjin’s industrial structure while the rise in the old-age dependency ratio may promote it,but the effect isn’t significant.In addition,the increase of the proportion of Tianjin’s population with college degree or above,and the rise in the ratio of urban population to rural population and the ratio of employment population in the tertiary industry to total employment population may promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure.Therefore,Tianjin municipal government should actively guide the sound changes of population structure and formulate effective economic and industrial policies according to the changes of population structure.