基于春节返乡潮变压器的负荷预测方法

Load Forecasting Method of Transformer Based on the Tide of Returning Home During the Spring Festival

针对春节期间房山西部山区人员返乡导致用电需求激增,从而引发变压器负载过重的问题,提出基于春节返乡潮变压器的负荷预测方法。该方法基于移动、电信、联通三大通信商数据建立人口增长模型,对春节期间台区返乡人数增量进行预测;之后进一步搭建基于配网精益化管理系统的台区负载率计算模型,综合考虑人口因素和天气因素以预测春节期间变压器负荷的增长,从而对可能重过载的台区进行措施制定和提前治理,为春节期间的正常供电提供了保障。

During the Spring Festival,the return of people from mountainous areas in the west of Fangshan led to a surge in power demand,resulting in excessive load on the transformer.To solve the problem,a load forecasting method based on the tide of returning home for the Spring Festival is proposed.Based on the data of China Mobile,China Telecom and China Unicom,a population growth model is established to predict the increment of people returning home during the Spring Festival.Then,the calculation model of station load rate based on distribution network lean management system is further established.The population and weather factors are comprehensively considered to predict the growth of transformer load during the Spring Festival to formulate measures and control in advance for the station area that may be heavily overloaded,which provides a guarantee for the normal power supply during the Spring Festival.