中国老年人口健康预期寿命差异的分解研究

Decomposition of Difference in Healthy Life Expectancy among the Elderly Population in China

健康预期寿命是反映人群健康长寿的重要指标,健康预期寿命差异反映了一个国家或地区的健康不平等状况。利用多状态生命表分析了中国老年人口健康预期寿命在过去十余年间的趋势与变动,并通过夏普利值分解法测算了人口社会学等11类因素对老年人口健康预期寿命差异的具体贡献值。得到以下四项重要研究结论:第一,从2005年到2018年,中国老年人口健康预期寿命差异的程度略有增加,女性、农村群体相比对应群体差距始终较高;泰尔指数分解发现,组内不平等(而非组间不平等)是造成上述差异的主要原因;老年人口健康预期寿命的性别差异呈现出高龄老人缩小而低龄老人扩大的趋势。第二,婚姻状况是健康预期寿命变动最重要的影响因素,但影响程度呈现逐年下降趋势,反之,受教育程度的影响在逐年上升;进一步将11类影响因素归类后发现:“个体特征”是最重要的影响因素,“经济因素”和“行为因素”的重要性次之,“环境因素”的影响最小。第三,上述影响因素对中国老年人口健康预期寿命的影响总体呈上升趋势,分城乡、分性别后依然呈现出相同的特征。最后,各因素在不同城乡、性别、婚姻状态的群体中的影响存在异质性。

Healthy life expectancy is an important indicator that reflects the healthy and longevity of the population simultaneously.The difference of healthy life expectancy can reflect the inequality of health in a country or region.This article uses a multi-state life table to analyze the trends and changes in the healthy life expectancy of elderly population in China in the past ten years;meanwhile,it calculates the impact of 11 types of factors such as social factors on the difference of the healthy life expectancy of the elderly through the sharpley value decomposition method.The following four important research conclusions are obtained:Firstly,from 2005 to 2018,the degree of difference in the healthy life expectancy of the elderly people in China has increased slightly,with women and rural groups always having higher levels of dificency.Further Theil index decomposition shows that intra-group inequality(rather than inter-group inequality)is the main cause of the above difference.The gender difference in the healthy life expectancy of the elderly population shows a trend of shrinking older people and expanding younger ones.Secondly,marital status is the most important factor influencing changes in healthy life expectancy,but which shows a downward trend year by year.On the contrary,the impact of education level is increasing yearly.After further categorizing 11 types of influencing factors,it is found that“individual characteristics”are the most important factors,followed by“economic factors”and“behavioral factors”,then“environmental factors”have the least impact.Thirdly,the impact of above factors on the healthy life expectancy of the elderly in China shows an upward trend generally,and the characteristics still exist when divided by the urban and rural areas and gender.Finally,the influence of various factors in groups of different urban&rural areas,genders,and marital status are heterogeneous.