黄河流域水资源压力变化及其驱动因素分析

Analysis of Water Resources Stress and Its Driving Factors of the Yellow River Basin

为探究黄河流域水资源压力时空变化特征及其主导因素,对流域内生产、生活用水管理以及协同管理的政策制定提供支撑,基于2000—2019年时间序列数据,测算了黄河流域除四川省外的八省(区)水资源压力变化趋势,采用对数平均迪氏分解法(LMDI)对水资源压力变化的7个驱动因素进行了分解。结果表明:研究期内八省(区)整体水资源压力值在0.25上下波动,生产用水对水资源的压力明显大于生活用水的;产业用水效率提升和产业结构调整为水资源压力减小的主导因素,地区生产总值的增加是导致水资源压力增大的主要原因,人口数量增加、城镇化率提升和人均生活用水强度增加均对水资源压力具有正向驱动作用。

In order to explore the spatial-temporal changes of water resources stress and its driving factors in the Yellow River Basin,and provide policy making support for integrated water resources management,this study investigated the historical trend(2000-2019)of water resources stress in eight provinces in the Yellow River Basin and decomposed the changes into seven driving factors by using Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI)method.The results show that the total water resources stress of the eight provinces fluctuates around 0.25 during the study period,and the contribution of production water use to water resources stress is obviously greater than that of domestic water use.The improvement of industrial water efficiency and the adjustment of industrial structure are the leading factors contributing to decrease water resources stress.The increase in regional gross domestic product is the main factor to increase water resources stress.The growth of population,urbanization rate and per capita domestic water use are also positive driving forces to increase water resources stress.