安徽省地质灾害气象风险预警系统方法研究

Study on System Methods of Meteorological Earlywarning and Prediction System of Geological Hazards in Anhui Province

地质灾害气象风险预警是地质灾害防范的关键环节,对增强灾害防御能力,变被动救灾为主动防灾避灾具有重要意义。本研究采用确定性系数法和基于CF的权重确定方法,计算了各评价单元的潜势度。通过建立多元回归预测模型,将基于潜势度、预报雨量、有效雨量的气象风险预警系统方法应用于安徽省地质灾害气象风险预警工作中,并建立了一套完整的从数据准备、会商分析、预警制作、签批发布,到预警预报结果反馈信息收集的预警预报工作流程,取得了较好的效果。

Geological hazards earlywarning and prediction is a key link in the prevention of geological hazards.It is of great significance to enhance disaster prevention capabilities and transform passive disaster relief into active disaster prevention and avoidance.In this study,the deterministic coefficient method and the weight determination method based on CF are used to calculate geological hazards potentiality parameter of each evaluation unit.By establishing a multivariate regression prediction model,the meteorological earlywarning method based on geological hazards potentiality parameter,forecast rainfall and effective rainfall is applied to the earlywarning and prediction system of geological hazards in Anhui province,and a complete set of early warning and prediction work flow,including data preparation,consultation analysis,making of early warning production,leadership approval and public information issuance and feedback information collection of early warning and prediction results.After two years of practice testing,it has achieved good results.