相邻地区风暴潮灾害风险评估与区划成果集成方法初探及应用

Preliminary Exploration and Application of Integrated Method of Storm Surge Disaster Risk Assessment and Zoning Results in Adjacent Areas

由于风暴潮灾害常年对我国造成严重影响,因此国内许多沿海省(自治区、直辖市)均开展了风暴潮灾害风险评估与区划工作。随着该工作的陆续完成,考虑全局风暴潮灾害风险管理的需要,即将面临相邻地区成果衔接或集成的问题。为此,文章开展了相邻地区风暴潮灾害风险评估与区划成果集成方法的初步研究,提出潮位、增水、淹没水深、危险性、脆弱性、风险等级和风险区划等模型计算或评估结果的分类集成方法,并以上海市沿海5区的3个区域风暴潮模型的计算和评估结果为基础进行了方法应用,成功获得了上海全市的集成成果。文章提出的成果集成方法旨在为全国其他沿海省(自治区、直辖市)、县的成果集成提供方法借鉴。

Due to the severe impact of storm surge disaster on China,many coastal provinces and cities in China have carried out the risk assessment and zoning work of storm surge disaster.With the completion of this work,considering the need of global storm surge disaster risk management,the problem of connecting or integrating the results of adjacent areas will be faced.Therefore,this paper carried out a preliminary study on the integrated method of storm surge disaster risk assessment and zoning results in adjacent areas.A classification and integration method for calculated or evaluated results of models,including tide level,increased water,submerged water depth,dangerousness,vulnerability,risk level and risk zoning was proposed.Based on the results of three regional storm surge models in five coastal districts of Shanghai,the method was applied and the integrated results of the whole city were obtained successfully.The integration method proposed in this paper aimed to provide reference for other provinces,cities and counties in China.