我国基本养老保险制度的影响因素探究——基于短面板数据

A probe into the influencing factors of China's basic pension insurance system-Based on short panel data

基本养老保险制度是退休职工的重要生活保障,也是其经济收入的主要来源。文章利用2012~2019年31个省直辖市、自治区的面板数据,研究“在岗职工平均工资”“离退休人数”“医疗保险支出”“地方财政支出”和“老年人口抚养比”五个方面对基本养老保险基金支出的影响。通过建立双向固定效应模型,发现“离退休人数”“医疗保险支出”这两个因素与养老保险基金的支出息息相关,对其产生了很重要的影响。

The basic old-age insurance system is an important livelihood guarantee for retired employees and the main source of eco-nomic income.This article uses panel data from 31 provinces and cities from 2012 to 2019,from five aspects:"average wages of on-the-job employees""number of retirees""medical insurance expenditures""local fiscal expenditures"and"elderly dependency ratio"to study their impact on the expenditures of basic pension insurance funds.Through the establishment of a two-way fixed effect model,the study found that the two factors"number of retirees"and"medical insurance expenditure"are closely related to the expenditure of the pension insurance fund,and have a very important impact on it.