基于潜在权重自适应分配的作战方案评估模型

An Evaluation Model of Operation Scheme Based on Adaptive Allocation of Latent Weights

作战方案评估是作战辅助决策的关键环节,用于定量评估规划的作战行动达成预定作战目标的程度。现有的作战方案评估方法主要基于经典的多属性决策理论,针对这些方法在评估指标赋权时单方面偏重主观或客观因素的局限,提出一种基于潜在权重自适应分配的作战方案评估模型,该模型在贝叶斯网络的框架下实现了加权和评估策略,可依据给定的样本集与样本标签,以非线性方式融合主客观两方面信息,从而自适应分配指标潜在权重,并利用贝叶斯方法的后验推断机制计算新方案的评估结果。实验也验证了模型的有效性。

Operation scheme evaluation is a key link in assisting operational decision-making,which quantitatively evaluates to which extent a planned operation can accomplish a predetermined operational objective.Current evaluation methods are mainly based on the classic multi-attribute decision theory,but these methods unilaterally focus on subjective or objective factors when allocating index weights.To solve the problem,an evaluation model of operation scheme based on adaptive allocation of latent weights is proposed.The model implements the weighted sum strategy within the framework of Bayesian network,and integrates both subjective and objective information in a nonlinear manner according to a given sample set and sample labels,so as to adaptively allocate latent weights of the indexes,and then calculates the evaluation results of the new scheme using the posterior inference mechanism of Bayesian method.Experiments have also verified the effectiveness of the model.