钻石公主号邮轮上COVID-19传播动态的研究

A Study of the Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19 on the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship

为研究新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)在相对封闭环境内的传播动态,并依此研究能较大减少最终发病数的防疫措施,以钻石公主号邮轮上的感染情况为例,运用基于主体的建模方法(Agent-Based Modeling,ABM),将活动范围和活动内容不同但有交互的乘客和工作人员作为主体,对隔离期间的乘客和工作人员在邮轮上的活动进行仿真,模拟钻石公主号邮轮上的疫情传播情况。采用拉丁超立方抽样在ABM模型的参数空间进行采样,获得最佳参数组,并针对钻石公主号邮轮的特殊情况设计了几种可能减少发病人数的控制措施。结果发现,钻石公主号邮轮上大部分感染的病例是由乘客间传染的,但在隔离初期,被工作人员传染的乘客人数大于乘客间传染的人数。若在隔离开始时,就加大对工作人员的检测,及时将感染的工作人员移出,并将这项措施辅助于常规的控制措施,将很大程度减少最终的感染人数。

The transmission of COVID-19 in relatively closed places such as ships,prisons,hospitals,is still a public concern.We take the transmission situation on the Diamond Princess Cruise ship as an example to study the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in a relatively closed place.The Agent-Based Modeling(ABM)method is applied to simulate the transmission dynamics of COVID-19.The Latin Hypercube sampling is proposed for parameter estimation in ABM.The simulation results show that most of the infected cases on the Diamond Princess Cruise ship were transmitted between passengers.However,at the beginning of the quarantine,the number of passengers infected by crew was much more than the number of passengers infected by other passengers.Based on this results,several control measures are designed.If at the beginning of the quarantine,the lab testing was strengthened for crew members,and the infected crew were disembarked in time,the final number of infected would be greatly reduced.Furthermore,if this measure was supplemented with the conventional control measures,the final number of infected would be further reduced.