复杂舆论场景中信息内容传播风险研究

Research on Risk of Information Content Communication in Complex Public Opinion Scenes

[研究目的]为了营造积极健康的舆论空间,把复杂舆论场景中信息内容传播风险减小到最低,风险控制就显得尤为重要,所以有必要提取场景特点,研究信息内容传播的风险点、风险识别影响因子和困境,把风险降低在初始阶段。[研究方法]研究基于复杂舆论场景相关理论,归纳出复杂舆论场景具有全连接性、融合性、智能性、在线化、关系去中心化的特点,然后通过德尔菲法提炼出复杂舆论场景中信息内容传播的五大风险点,分别是国际国内舆论场中意识形态渗透风险、信息两极分化挑战党政权威风险、负面信息超载引发社会骚乱风险、媒体报道失职引发谣言传播风险、信息监管不当引发次生舆情风险,最后从传播动态视角出发,结合业界实践分析当前风险识别的关键影响因子和应用困境。[研究结论]在复杂舆论场景中,风险识别的关键影响因子主要是风险源中的重大突发事件、重大活动报道、社会思潮传播,风险受众中的敏感人物/群体、风险传播渠道中的社交媒体、风险效应中的风险感知以及风险管理中的舆情监管,根据目前风险识别应用层面存在的诸多困境,后续风控管理研究更应着重关注大数据技术的使用、用户情绪的变化以及真实的社会现实风险。

[Research purpose]In order to create a positive and healthy public opinion space and minimize the risk of information communication in the scene of complex public opinion,risk control is particularly important.Therefore,it is necessary to extract the characteristics of the scene,to study the risk points of the information content,impact factors and dilemmas of risk identification,and to reduce the risk at the initial stage.[Research method]Based on the theory of complex public opinion scenes and risk communication,the study concludes that complex public opinion scene has the characteristics of full connectivity,integration,intelligence,online and relationship decentralization,and then extracts the five risk points of information content communication in complex public opinion scene by combining the Delphi method.The risks are ideological penetration in the international and domestic public opinion field,group polarization to challenge the authority of party and government,risk of negative information to cause social unrest,media dereliction of duty to spark rumors spreading and undeserved information regulation to cause the risk of secondary public opinion.Finally,from the perspective of communication dynamics in combination with the practice,the study makes analysis on key impact factors and application difficulties of the current risk identification.[Research conclusion]In complex media scene,risk identification of key factors are the main risk source of unexpected events,major events reports,social thoughts communication,audience/sensitive person in the group,risk communication channels of social media,effect of risk perception and risk management in the public opinion supervision.According to the current risk identification application level that exists many difficulties,follow-up research on management of risk control should pay more attention to the use of big data technology,the change of users'emotions and the risk of real social reality.