青海省水资源—能源—粮食系统耦合协调演化特征研究

The Characteristics of the Coupling and Coordination Evolution of Water Resources-Energy-Food System in Qinghai Province

随着经济社会发展和全球变化的影响,水资源的供需矛盾日益尖锐,能源需求量激增,全球面临实现以粮食安全为核心的联合国可持续发展目标。本文以青海省为研究对象,通过构建水资源—能源—粮食系统耦合协调评价指标体系,采用熵值法对各子系统指标赋权,对2002-2018年协调发展水平和时序演化特征进行定量分析。研究结果表明,青海省2002-2018年水资源—能源—粮食系统综合评价指数总体呈上升趋势;在时间演变中,耦合协调度呈阶段性变化特征,第一阶段表现为梯级增强趋势,第二阶段表现为“U”型变化曲线。耦合协调类型经历了三个阶段(勉强协调,初级协调和中级协调)。灰色预测结果表明至2030年青海省水资源—能源—粮食系统的耦合协调度仍保持为初级协调状态,呈现略微下降趋势。

With the impact of economic and social development and global change,the contradiction between water supply and demand is increasingly acute,and the demand for energy is increasing.The world is also facing the goal of sustainable development of the United Nations with food security as the core.This paper takes Qinghai Province as the research object,through the construction of water resources energy food system coupling coordination evaluation index system,using entropy method to weight the indicators of each subsystem,and quantitative analysis of the coordinated development level and time sequence evolution characteristics in 2002-2018.The results show that the comprehensive evaluation index of water resources energy food system in Qinghai Province has an overall upward trend in 2002-2018;in the time evolution,the coupling coordination degree is characterized by a periodic change,the first stage is the step-by-step enhancement trend,and the second stage is the U-shaped change curve.The coupling coordination type has experienced three stages(forced coordination,primary coordination and intermediate coordination).The grey prediction results show that the coupling coordination degree of water resources energy grain system in Qinghai Province will remain in the primary coordination state by 2030,showing a slight decline trend.