近30年河南省粮食作物单产的时序演变特征及其与大气环流的联系

Temporal Evolution Characteristics of Grain Yield in Henan Province during Recent 30 Years and Its Relation to Atmospheric Circulation

依托河南省1989—2018年冬小麦、夏玉米产量数据及15种大尺度大气环流指数资料,基于集合经验模态分解评估研究区粮食作物单产的时序演变特征,结果表明,近30年冬小麦、夏玉米的单产均以趋势性增长为主,其方差贡献率分别为96.3%、59.5%,而单位面积农用化肥施用量是驱动单产增加的首要因素;冬小麦单产波动存在着准2.7、6、10年的周期性振荡,而夏玉米单产波动存在着准3.3、7.5、10年的周期性振荡;各作物单产的周期性振荡均与环流指数存在显著的相关性,而由前期环流指数与年份作为预报因子的线性模型较好地模拟了冬小麦、夏玉米单产的年际变化,其平均相对误差分别为3.1%、5.3%;河南省夏玉米单产波动对环流指数更为敏感,特别是前一年10月份较高数值的东太平洋/北太平洋涛动(EP/NP)是其单产减少的关键前兆性信号。

Based on the yield record of winter wheat and summer maize during 1989-2018 in Henan Province and the data of large-scale atmospheric circulation indices(LACI),the temporal evolution characteristics for grain crops yield were evaluated using ensemble empirical mode decomposition(EEMD).The results showed that in the past 30 years,both the winter wheat and summer maize yield were characterizing as increasing trends with the variance contribution of 96.3%and 59.5%,respectively,and the dosage of agricultural chemical fertilizer in per area was the primary factor driving the yield increase.There were quasi 2.7a,6a,10a periodic oscillations for yield fluctuations of winter wheat,while there were quasi 3.3a,7.5a,10a periodic oscillations for yield fluctuations of summer maize.There were significant correlations between the periodic oscillation of yield and LACI in each crop,the linear model with the antecedent LACI and the year as the forecasting factor simulated the inter-annual variation of winter wheat and summer maize yields,and the average relative errors were 3.1%and 5.3%,respectively.The yield fluctuations of summer maize was more sensitive to LACI,especially the higher East Pacific/North Pacific Oscillation(EP/NP)in October over the previous year was the key precursor signals for yield reduction.