湖长制对水质提升的政策效应研究

Policy effects of Lake Chief System on improvement of water quality

基于2013年11月至2021年6月全国地表水水质月报中的重点湖库水质监测数据,利用断点回归法实证研究湖长制对水质提升的政策效应,为湖长制的价值判断提供了一个新的视角。实证结果表明,湖长制推行后全国重点湖库的总体水质重度污染率下降了2%,而总氮单独评价水质优良率下降了8.8%,富营养化率上升了5%,湖长制的推行提升了全国重点湖库的水质综合状况,但对总氮单独评价时的水质状况及营养状态却没有产生提升效果。根据以上研究结果提出了相应的湖长制对水质提升的政策建议。

Based on the water quality monitoring data of the key lakes and reservoirs in the monthly national surface water quality report from November 2013 to June 2021,the regression discontinuity method is used to empirically study the policy effects of the Lake Chief system on water quality improvement so as to provide a new perspective to study the value judgment of the Lake Chief System.The empirical results show that after the implementation of the Lake Chief System,the overall water pollution rate of major lakes and reservoirs across the country has dropped by 2%,while the excellent and good water quality rate of the total nitrogen alone has dropped by 8.8%,and the eutrophication rate has increased by 5%.It is indicated that the implementation of the system has improved the comprehensive water quality of key lakes and reservoirs across the country,but the water quality and nutritional status are not improved when the total nitrogen is separately evaluated.Finally,the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward based on the above research results.