未来气候变化对云南柠檬气候适宜性的影响

Effects of Future Climate Change on Climate Suitability of Lemon in Yunnan

气候变化影响柠檬生长、产量和品质,本文利用云南省125个国家气象站1981—2018年,月平均气温、月平均降水量、月日照时数,进行基准年代下云南柠檬气候适宜性分区;采用RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5气候情景模式,研究2021—2030年、2031—2040年、2041—2050年云南柠檬气候适宜区的变化,探讨未来气候变化背景下,云南柠檬气候适宜性变化,以期对柠檬产业布局、规划、引种提供科学的指导。结果表明:21世纪中叶,RCP2.6情景下柠檬最适宜种植区增加了3成左右,RCP4.5情景下柠檬最适宜种植区增加了5成左右,RCP8.5情景下柠檬最适宜种植区增加了9成左右。但由于受降水因子的限制,中度适宜区到2041—2050年开始缩减,总的可适宜种植区(高度适宜区+中度适宜区)基本趋于稳定,这将给柠檬在云南的种植发展提供广阔空间。

Climate change affects lemon growth, yield and quality. In order to study the change of climate suitability distribution of Citrus Lemon in Yunnan under the background of future climate change, the daily meteorological data of 125 national meteorological stations in Yunnan from 1981 to 2018 are used. Based on the climate suitability regionalization of lemon in Yunnan Province, the climate suitability regionalization of lemon in 2021-2030, 2031-2040 and 2041-2050 are studied using RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. By the middle of the 21 st century, lemon’s most suitable planting area under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 increased by about 30%, 50% and 9%, respectively. However, because of the limitation of precipitation factor, the moderate suitable area will decrease from 2041 to 2050, and the total suitable area(high suitable area + medium suitable area) will be stable, providing a broad space for lemon planting development in Yunnan.