基于不确定性分析的油气采收率预测方法

An uncertainty analysis method on recovery efficiency prediction

针对目前油气采收率预测不确定性评价存在的问题,提出了一种将采收率不确定性因素敏感性分析与蒙特卡洛抽样方法相结合的定量评价采收率的预测方法。以K油田A-4储层为例,分析了该类储层采收率预测数值模拟模型中存在的不确定性因素,并在储层开发预测方案建立的基础上,结合敏感性分析和蒙特卡洛抽样方法,定量分析了不确定性因素对采收率预测产生的影响,为油气项目采收率风险评价提供参考,指导油气田开发方案设计、优化和评估。

Aiming at the problems existing in the uncertainty evaluation of reservoir recovery efficiency prediction,a prediction method for quantitative evaluation of reservoir recovery is proposed,which combines the sensitivity analysis of uncertain factors of recovery with Monte Carlo sampling method.Taking A-4 reservoir of K oilfield as an example,the uncertain factors existing in the numerical simulation model of reservoir recovery prediction are analyzed.Based on the establishment of reservoir development prediction scheme,combined with sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo sampling method,the influence of uncertain factors on recovery prediction is quantitatively analyzed,so as to provide reference for recovery risk evaluation of oil and gas projects,guide the design,optimization and evaluation of oil and gas field development schemes.