“21世纪海上丝绸之路”背景下中国对外直接投资与贸易效应研究--以南太5岛国为例

China’s Foreign Direct Investment and Trade Effect under the Background of 21st Century Maritime Silk Road:Taking Five Island Countries in the South Pacific as Examples

基于2009—2017年中国对南太平洋5岛国的直接投资和贸易数据,借助引力模型,实证分析了中国对南太平洋5岛国直接投资对其进出口贸易的影响效应。实证结果发现,中国对南太平洋5岛国的直接投资存量和流量与其贸易额呈正相关关系,即中国对南太平洋5岛国的直接投资具有明显的贸易创造效应,且直接投资存量比流量,产生的贸易效应更为显著。但同时研究也发现,直接投资产生的贸易创造效应存在一定的时滞性。因此,应适时优化中国对南太平洋岛国的直接投资,以增强中国直接投资对双边贸易促进效应,更好地提升中国与南太平洋岛国的双赢效果。

Based on the data of China’s direct investment and trade in five South Pacific island countries from 2009 to 2017,with the aid of a gravity model,this paper empirically analyzes the impact of China’s direct investment in five South Pacific island countries on their import and export trade.The empirical results show that the stock and flow of China’s direct investment to these five South Pacific island countries are positively correlated with their trade volume,that is,China’s direct investment in the five South Pacific island countries has an obvious trade creation effect,and the stock of direct investment has a more significant trade effect than the flow of direct investment.But at the same time,the research also found that the trade creation effect of direct investment has a certain time lag.Therefore,we should optimize China’s direct investment in South Pacific island countries in time to enhance the promotion effect of China’s direct investment on bilateral trade,so as to better enhance the win-win effect of China and South Pacific island countries.