产业结构转换与城镇化高质量发展--基于动态空间面板模型的实证研究

An Analysis of the Effect of Industrial Structure Adjustment on the High-quality Development of Urbanization:An Empirical Research Based on Dynamic Spatial Panel Model

我国城镇化发展正处于提质增效的关键时期,而城镇化效率是城镇化高质量发展的重要表征。基于省际面板数据和动态空间面板模型,实证检验产业结构转换对城镇化效率提升的作用效应及其异质性。结果显示,我国城镇化效率整体呈现波动上升态势,并存在明显的地区和省份差异。相较产业间结构转换,以行业生产率增长为核心内容的产业内结构转换才是城镇化效率提升的重要动力,且在一系列稳健性检验后证实了该结论的可靠性。多维异质性探究发现,城镇化效率较高的地区,产业间结构转换会呈现显著负向作用。在城镇化发展的不同阶段,产业内行业生产率增长依然能够为其提供强劲动力。据此,城镇化进程中要慎用以服务业替代工业的产业结构服务化战略,应采用以生产率增长为主导方向的产业结构转换,并构建产城融合的区域协作网络,有针对性地实施差异化产业结构政策。

The development of urbanization in our country is in a critical period of improving quality and efficiency,while the efficiency of urbanization is an important indicator of the high-quality development of urbanization.Based on inter-provincial panel data and dynamic spatial panel model,this paper empirically tests the functional effect and heterogeneity of industrial structure transformation on the promotion of urbanization efficiency.The results showed that the overall efficiency of our country’s urbanization presents a fluctuating upward trend,and there are obvious regional and provincial differences.Compared with the inter-industry structural transition,the intra-industry structural adjustment with industry productivity growth as the core content is the important driving force for the improvement of urbanization efficiency,and the reliability of this conclusion has been confirmed after a series of robustness tests.It has been found by multi-dimensional heterogeneity exploration that in areas with high urbanization efficiency,inter-industry structural transformation has a significant negative effect.In different stages of urbanization development,industry productivity growth within the industry can still provide strong impetus for it.Accordingly,the industrial structure service strategy of replacing industry with services should be used cautiously in the urbanization process,while an industrial structure transformation with productivity growth as the dominant direction should be adopted,and a regional collaborative network of city-industry integration should be constructed and a differentiated industrial structure policy should be implemented in a targeted manner.