双边税收协定如何影响OFDI?:基于税收协定异质性的视角

How Do Bilateral Tax Agreements Affect OFDI?:From the Perspective of Heterogeneity of Tax Agreements

实现更大力度、更高质量的对外开放是"双循环"的应有之义。近年来,中国企业在海外市场的投资日渐增多,双边税收协定为实行高水平对外开放提供税收制度保障的重要性日益凸显,但相关经验研究仍然较为鲜见。为此,文章基于中国2003~2019年对78个国家的OFDI面板数据,同时将双边税收协定内的特殊常设机构、预提税税率等条款进行量化,从异质性的视角采用渐进式双重差分法对双边税收协定带来的OFDI影响进行了实证研究。结果发现:相比双边税收协定非签订国,中国会显著增加对双边税收协定签订国的OFDI,该结论在经过一系列稳健性检验后仍然成立;就具体条款而言,工程型、资源开采型常设机构认定的时间标准越长,并且股息、利息和特许权使用费的预提税税率越低,双边税收协定对OFDI的促进作用越大,并且这种作用在高税负国家更大。文章的研究表明,当前签订和修订双边税收协定应该因地制宜调整相关内容,这为推动中国制度型开放提供了一定的借鉴。

To achieve greater intensity and higher quality of opening up is the proper meaning of the"Dual Circulation".In recent years,Chinese enterprises have invested more and more in overseas markets.In this context,the importance of bilateral tax agreements to provide tax system guarantee for the implementation of high-level opening up has become increasingly prominent,but relevant empirical studies are still rare.Therefore,based on China′s OFDI panel data of78 countries from2003 to2019,this paper uses the progressive difference-in-difference method to quantify the special permanent establishments and tax rates in bilateral tax agreements,and empirically studies the impact of bilateral tax agreements on OFDI from the perspective of heterogeneity.The results show that,firstly,compared with non-signatories of bilateral tax agreements,China will significantly increase OFDI to signatories of bilateral tax agreements,and this conclusion is still valid after a series of robustness tests.Secondly,in terms of specific provisions,the longer the time standards identified by the engineering and resource-mining permanent institutions are,the lower the advance tax rates of dividends,interest and royalties are,and the greater the promotion effect of bilateral tax agreements on OFDI is.This effect is greater in countries with high tax burdens.This study shows that the current signing and revision of bilateral tax agreements should adjust the relevant content according to local conditions,which provides a certain reference for promoting institutional openness in China.