代际财务转移的动态性

The Dynamics of Intergenerational Financial Transfers

代际财务转移可能的动态变化,对个人及社会福利都具有重要影响。使用CHARLS(2015)微观数据,基于Logit模型、多项式回归模型以及分段线性样条回归详细刻画了随父母年龄增长,父母与成年孩子之间财务转移的概率以及转移数量的动态演变规律。研究结果显示:父母孩子间财务转移概率和转移数量遵从非线性生命周期模式。随着父母年龄增长,父母给孩子正的净财务转移概率与财务转移数量均呈现U型曲线模式,孩子给父母财务转移概率与父母收到的转移及净转移数量遵从倒U型曲线模式、收到的正净转移大致呈现S型模式,父母-孩子间发生任何财务交换概率呈现倒U型模式。代际经济支持随着父母年龄增长,存在一个反转点,即父母50岁时,收到的净转移变为正值。父母年龄效应同时体现出了一定异质性。代际转移存在交换动机,这意味着公共转移不会完全替代私人转移,相反可以强化之。基于公共转移影响私人转移角度,需完善公共基金转移计划及公共养老金制度,更加关注中高龄父母的福利水平;另一方面,要健全收入再分配制度,增加成年孩子可支配收入,以平滑父母消费,同时促进成年子女劳动供给。评估代际资源再分配公共政策的影响要考虑其引致的家庭层次上的资源次级再分配。

The possible dynamic changes of the intergenerational financial transfer patterns have important impacts on personal and social welfare.Using CHARLS(2015)micro data,and based on the Logit model,polynomial regression model and piecewise linear spline regression,the dynamic evolution of both the probability and the number of financial transfers between parents and adult children are described in detail as the parent ages.The results show that the probability and the number of financial transfers between parents and children follow a non-linear life cycle pattern.As parent ages,the probability of positive net financial transfers and the amount of financial transfers given by parents to children all show a U-shaped curve pattern.The financial transfer probability,amount of transfers received and net transfers from children to parents follow the inverted U-shaped curve model.The positive net transfers received by parents roughly followed an S-shaped pattern,and the probability of any financial exchange between parents and children shows an inverted U-shaped pattern.Intergenerational economic support,as the parent ages,has a reversal point.That is,when the parents are 50 years old,the net transfers received becomes positive.The age effect of parents also reflects a certain degree of heterogeneity.There is an exchange motive in intergenerational financial transfers,which means that public transfers will not completely replace private transfers,on the contrary it strengthens private transfers.From the perspective of public transfers affecting private transfers,it is necessary to improve the transfer plan of public fund and public pension system,and pay more attention to the welfare of middle-aged and senior-aged parents;on the other hand,it is necessary to improve the income redistribution system and increase the disposable income of adult children to smooth the consumption of the parents and promote the labor supply of adult children.Finally,assessing the impact of public policy of intergenerational resource redistribution should consider the secondary redistribution of resources at the family level that it induces.