“租购并举”政策对住房租售市场的影响——基于双重差分模型的分析

The Impact of“Renting and Purchasing Policy”on Housing Sales and Rental Market:An Analysis Based on DID Method

基于中国30个城市2015—2019年的月度面板数据,利用双重差分模型分析"租购并举"政策对住房租售市场量价的影响。研究显示,"租购并举"政策对住房租赁市场租金和出租量均具有显著的正向作用,但在一定程度上减少了住房销售量,抑制了房价上涨,"租购并举"政策对住房市场的作用效果存在着从租赁市场到买卖市场、从住房数量到住房价格的传导机制。研究结果表明,"租购并举"试点实施以来,政策效果有一定的滞后性,但对优化住房市场结构起到了积极的作用。建议进一步增加租赁住房供应,加强规范与监督住房租赁行业发展,健全相关法律法规与扩大公共投入以保障租购同权,重视住房政策制定与实施过程中的租售市场量价互动关系。

Based on the monthly panel data of 30 cities in China from 2015 to 2019,difference-in-differences model(DID)is used to analyze the impact of the“Renting and Purchasing Policy”on the volume and price of housing sales and rental market.The empirical results show that the implementation of the policy has a significantly positive effect on both the rental prices and volumes in the housing rental market,yet it reduces the sales volume of houses to a certain extent and restrains the rise of housing prices.The effects of the policy on the housing market have the transmission mechanisms from the rental market to the sales market,and from housing quantity to housing price.The conclusion shows that the effect of the policy has a time lag after the trial implementation,but it has played a positive impact on optimizing the structure of the housing market.It is suggested to further increase the supply of rental housing in the future,strengthen the regulation and supervision on the development of the rental housing industry,improve relevant laws and regulations,and expand public inputs to protect both the rights of the house renting and purchasing groups.More attention should be paid to the interaction between the prices and volumes of both rental and sales markets while planning and implementing housing policies.