2000—2018年中国区域经济发展多尺度格局演进及驱动机理

Spatio-temporal Differentiation and Driving Mechanism of Regional Economic Development in China at Multi-scale from 2000 to 2018

经济高速增长向高质量发展转变进程中的区域空间格局演进,省、市、县尺度下的空间异质性特征与驱动机理解析,对优化区域协调发展新格局,推进经济高质量发展具有重要参考。文章以不同尺度的人均GDP指标为基础,运用多种时空分析方法对中国2000—2018年的经济发展格局演进特征及驱动机理进行分析。结论如下:①从内部差异程度看,各尺度下的时序变化波动起伏较小,且市级、省级逐渐趋于稳定态势。②从空间格局演进看,县级尺度下高值区集聚现象不明显,主要分布在京津冀、长三角及重庆核心城市,其数量先增加后减少;中值区在东部沿海地带和中部高质量城镇化地区分布态势明显;低值区呈基底状广泛分布在西部和东北地区。对比来看,市级尺度下的高值区在东南沿海地带形成明显的串珠状,集聚程度较县级显著提升;省级尺度下的高值区逐渐形成连绵分布态势。③从空间关联特征看,全局存在正向相关作用且集聚现象显著,县级尺度下显著HH区呈带状分布在京津冀核心区及东南沿海一带,显著LL区数量逐渐增加并向南延伸,形成“近墨者黑”的低值塌陷效应。市级、省级尺度下的显著LL区连绵分布在西南地区和西北及青藏高原地区,体现出与胡焕庸线几乎垂直的新分界线特征。④从影响因素看,基于地理探测器模型发现政府财政、投资与消费、五化协同等对经济活力的提升有着显著影响作用,同时也受主体功能区战略、区域发展政策和营商环境等因子的影响。

The evolution of regional spatial pattern in the process of the economy shifting from high-speed growth to high-quality development,and the driving mechanism at the province, city, and county levels are important references for optimizing the coordinated regional development and promoting high-quality economic development. Therefore, based on the per capita GDP, this paper uses a variety of spatio-temporal methods to analyze the evolution of economic development from 2000 to 2018 in China and its driving mechanism. The results are shown as follows. Firstly, from the perspective of the internal differences, it shows small fluctuation of the value under each scale, and tends to be stable at city and province levels. Secondly, from the perspective of spatial differentiation, the agglomeration of high-value units at county level is not obvious, which mainly distributes in Chongqing and the core cities of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration and Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration;the middle-value units distribute in the eastern coastal zone and the high-quality urbanization areas in central China;the low-value units concentrates in the western China and northeastern China. In contrast, the difference is that the high-value units at city level form an obvious beaded shape in the southeast coastal zone,and the degree of agglomeration is significantly higher than that at county level, whereas the high-value units at the province level gradually form a continuous distribution. Thirdly, from the perspective of spatial correlation,the significant HH areas at country level mainly distribute in the core cities of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the southeast coastal zone, and the significant LL areas gradually increase and extend to the south China, forming a low-value subsidence area. Meanwhile, from the comparative analysis of scales,the significant LL areas continuously distribute in the southwestern region of northwest China and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau at city and province levels, which reflect the characteristics of a new boundary line almost perpendicular to the Hu Line. Finally, from the perspective of influencing factors, based on the geographic detector model, it’s found that the government finance, investment and consumption, and the coordination of the five modernizations have a significant impact on the economic development level, and it is also affected by the main functional zone strategy, the regional development policy and the business environment.