中国制造业集聚的演变特征及其影响因素——基于空间面板模型的实证研究

Evolution Characteristics of the Manufacturing Industry Agglomeration in China and Its Influencing Factors:Empirical Research Based on the Spatial Panel Model

基于2007—2017年的地级城市数据,运用描述性分析方法和实证分析方法研究了我国产业转型背景下制造业集聚空间分布的演变特征及空间相关性视角下的影响因素。研究发现,样本期内我国东部地区制造业集聚的优势逐渐减少,中部地区制造业的集聚程度不断上升,逐渐形成以河南省和江西省为核心的制造业集聚优势城市群,并且我国城市间的制造业集聚程度存在显著的正向空间相关性;工业规模和房价对制造业集聚的影响呈"倒U型"曲线,公路交通基础设施对制造业集聚的影响显著为正,生产性服务业发展对制造业集聚的影响显著为负,工业规模还对邻近城市的制造业集聚存在"倒U型"的空间溢出效应;从长期效应和短期效应的分解来看,直接效应和间接效应都具有显著的时间累积特征,工业规模、房价、公路交通基础设施和生产性服务业发展对制造业集聚的长期直接效应大于短期直接效应,工业规模对制造业集聚的长期间接效应呈"倒U型"曲线,短期间接效应则不显著。

Based on city data from 2007 to 2017,this paper studies the evolution characteristics of the manufacturing industry agglomeration in China and its influencing factors in the context of economic transformation with descriptive analysis methods and empirical analysis methods. The study finds that the advantage of manufacturing agglomeration in eastern region has gradually decreased, while the degree of manufacturing agglomeration in the central region has continued to rise and manufacturing clusters such as Henan Province and Jiangxi Province have been formed;The spatial correlation of China’s manufacturing agglomeration among cities is significantly positive;The impact of industrial scale and housing prices on manufacturing agglomeration presents an inverted U-shaped curve, highway transportation infrastructure has a significant positive impact on manufacturing agglomeration, and producer services development has a significant negative impact on manufacturing agglomeration;Industrial scale also has space spillover effects on manufacturing agglomeration in neighboring cities;From the perspective of the decomposition of the effect, both direct and indirect effects have time accumulation characteristics. The long-term direct effects of industrial scale, housing prices,road transportation infrastructure, and producer services development on manufacturing agglomeration are greater than the short-term direct effects, and the long-term indirect effect of industrial scale is an inverted U-shaped curve while the short-term indirect effect is not significant.