中国基本养老金区域差距的变化及其影响因素

The Variation in Regional Gap of China’s Basic Pension and Its Influencing Factors

中国基本养老保险制度依旧停留在省级统筹阶段,区域分割导致的基本养老金差距问题引发了社会广泛关注。文章基于2005—2019年中国省际面板数据,系统定量分析了中国基本养老金区域差距的变化特征,并构建空间杜宾模型探究了其影响因素。结果表明:①中国基本养老金的绝对差距一直在扩大,但相对差距从2016年才开始呈扩大趋势。②四大板块中,西部和东部的基本养老金差距要高于中部和东北部;南北区域中,南部和北部之间的平均基本养老金差距较小,但南部地区的基本养老金相对差距要明显高于北部地区。③位于高值区域和中高值区域的省份主要包括西部地区的西藏和青海,以及一些东部沿海发达省份;位于低值区域的省份则主要分布在东北地区、中南地区和西南地区。④泰尔指数分解结果显示,来自组内的贡献要远远大于来自组间的贡献,组内的基本养老金差距是造成全国基本养老金差距的主要原因。⑤空间因素、滞后因素、经济因素、制度因素和人口因素均对中国基本养老金差距产生了显著影响。各省之间的基本养老金存在明显的空间正相关效应、棘轮效应和盯住工资增长行为,且制度赡养率和老年人口抚养比较高的省份基本养老金偏低。

China’s basic pension system is still in the stage of provincial pooling,and the basic pension gap resulted by region segmentation has attracted increasing attention of society. Based on China’s provincial panel data from 2005 to2019, this paper systematically and quantitatively analyzed the variation characteristics in regional gap of China’s basic pension,and constructed a spatial Durbin model to explore the influencing factors. The results show that: 1) The absolute gap of China’s basic pension has been constantly expanding, but the relative gap has showed the increasing trend since2016. 2) The basic pension gap is higher in the western and eastern regions than those in the central and northeastern regions. In the southern and northern regions, the average basic pension gap between the southern and northern regions is relatively small,but the relative basic pension gap in the southern region is significantly higher than that in the northern region. 3) Regions with high-value and medium-high-value mainly include Tibet and Qinghai,as well as some developed provinces in the eastern coast. Regions with low-value mainly locate in the northeast, south-central and southwestern regions. 4) The decomposition results of Theil index show that inner-group has much more contribution than the intergroup,and the gap of the inner-group basic pension is the main reason for the gap of the national basic pension. 5) Spatial factor,lagging factor,economic factor,institutional factor and demographic factor all have a significant impact on the gap of basic pension in China. Basic pension between each province has the obvious characteristics,such as spatial positive correlation effect, ratchet effect, and pegging wage growth behavior. Besides, the higher the system support rate and the elderly support rate, the lower the basic pension.