城市公园用地增长的时空分异及其驱动因素——基于湖南省城市面板数据的实证分析

Spatial and Temporal Differentiation of Urban Park Land Growth and Its Driving Factors:Empirical Analysis Based on Urban Panel Data of Hunan Province

生态文明战略背景下,城市公园用地管理对城市土地利用效益、城市社会转型以及可持续发展的作用越来越明显。文章以湖南省13个地级市2001—2016年的面板数据为基础,应用ArcGIS空间分析、变差系数、泰尔指数、相对发展率以及面板回归模型对城市公园用地增长的时空演变特征以及驱动因素开展实证研究。结果表明:①湖南省城市公园用地增长总体呈现不断上升趋势,2016年人均城市公园面积为2.509 m^(2)/人,但城市间差异显著,其空间分布具有连贯性,湘东地区和湘北地区是两个高值区。②2001—2016年,湖南省城市公园用地增长的区域差异呈逐步缩小趋势,不同城市的相对发展速度分异明显,其中常德和株洲发展最快。③房地产投资、城市交通和生态环境对城市公园用地增长具有正面驱动影响,而人口密度、经济增长对城市公园用地增长具有负面驱动影响。④城市公园用地增长的驱动机理表现为:生态环境、房地产投资、城市交通、经济增长、人口规模五大因素通过其不同属性特征和作用过程共同驱动城市公园用地增长。研究结论显示,城市公园用地逐渐成为城市高品质生活的重要用地需求,湖南省城市发展尚处于经济增长抑制公园用地增长的转型前发展阶段。

Under the background of ecological civilization strategy,the land management of urban park plays more and more important role in urban land use benefit, urban social transformation and sustainable development. Based on the panel data of 13 cities(autonomous prefecture) in Hunan from 2001 to 2016,this paper conducts an empirical study on the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and driving factors of urban park land growth using ArcGIS spatial analysis,variation coefficient, Teil index and panel regression model. The results show that: 1) The urban park land growth in Hunan Province was on the rise,and the per capita urban park area was 2.509 m^(2) in 2016. It had significant differences among cities in Hunan and showed the characteristic of coherence in term of spatial distribution,high-value areas mainly distributed in the north and east of Hunan. 2) From 2001 to 2016,the regional differences in urban park land use growth in Hunan Province were gradually decreasing, the relative development speed was significantly different among different cities,Changde and Zhuzhou developed fastest. 3) Real estate investment,urban transportation and ecological environment had positive driving effect on land use growth of urban park,while population density and economic growth had negative driving effect on land use growth of urban park. 4)The driving mechanism of urban park land growth was as follows: the five factors of ecological environment, real estate investment, urban transportation, economic growth and population size jointly drive the growth of urban park land through their different attribute characteristics and action process. The urban park land has gradually become an important land demand for high quality urban life, and the urban development of Hunan Province is still in the pre-transformation stage of economic growth inhibiting park land growth.