基于竞合关系演化的中国集成电路本土企业市场渗透率

Market Penetration Rate of Chinese Domestic Enterprises of Integrated Circuit Based on the Co-opetition Evolution

文章从企业更替频率、技术更新速度和企业地理集中度三个维度,分析2000—2018年中国集成电路本土企业间的竞争合作(竞合)关系及其演变过程,在此基础上构建市场渗透率模型,探究三种经营模式企业的市场渗透率发展态势及空间关联。结果表明:①三种经营模式的企业在“竞合平衡建立—平衡破坏”的动态过程中表现出不同的周期性规律,其中企业更替频率对“设计+销售”型企业的竞合关系变化起着主导作用,同时也是维持“设计+生产+销售”型企业竞合关系平缓发展的关键,而技术更新速度在推动“生产代工”型企业向新竞合平衡演进时有着明显的倒“U”型效应。②随着竞合关系演变,集成电路“设计+销售”型企业在设计环节的市场渗透率、“生产代工”型企业在制造环节的市场渗透率均增长明显,两者相互配合的代工模式大大削弱了“设计+生产+销售”型企业的市场竞争力。③2000—2008年三类企业的市场渗透率在空间上具有显著的正向依赖关系,2009年后低—高、高—低异类集聚比例上升,空间组合不断向随机和离散分布演化。

This article analyzed the co-opetition evolution of Chinese domestic enterprises of integrated circuit(IC) in 2000-2018 from three dimensions: enterprise turnover frequency, technology update rate and enterprise geographic concentration. Based on the above, this article builds the models of domestic market penetration, and explores its development trend and the spatial correlation in China with three type of business mode which are the design-sales type(DS), the design-manufacture-sales type(DMS) and the original entrusted manufacture type(OEM). The results showed that: 1) Enterprises of the three business modes exhibited different periodic laws in the dynamic process of the establishment-destruction of co-opetition,among which enterprise turnover frequency had an dominant impact on the DS enterprises, and was the key to maintain the smooth co-opetition evolution of the DMS enterprises. Technology update rate had an obvious inverted "U" effect when promoting the evolution of OEM enterprises to a new co-opetition balance.2) With the co-opetition evolution, the market penetration rate of DS enterprises in the design link and the market penetration rate of OEM enterprises in the manufacturing link had both increased significantly. The cooperating "FablessFoundry" mode of the two had greatly weakened the market competitiveness of DMS enterprises. 3) In 2000-2008, the market penetration rates of the three types of enterprises had a significant positive spatial dependence. After 2009, the heterogeneous agglomeration ratios had increased in the market penetration rate,and the combination of type zones had continuously evolved into random distribution and discrete distribution.