我国工业产能过剩的区域差异及成因分析

Regional Differences and Causes of Industrial Overcapacity in China

基于2001—2019年省际面板数据,运用SFA方法对其生产环节的产能利用率进行测算,并测算了省际销售环节的产能利用率,进而得到我国省域工业产能利用率。然后,根据产能过剩指数与产能利用率之间的关系计算出2001—2019年我国省际工业产能过剩指数。主要结论包括:①整体来看,2001—2019年中国工业平均产能利用率为70.56%,存在轻度产能过剩。从区域来看,东部地区绝大部分省域的产能利用合理,中部地区和西部地区都出现了产能过剩问题,且中部地区绝大部分省域为中度产能过剩,西部地区绝大部省域出现了严重的产能过剩。②从时间上看,我国产能过剩指数总体上呈下降趋势,即产能过剩问题随着时间的推移略有缓解。③究其原因,主要有我国区域经济发展不充分不平衡,区域产业结构、技术水平、区域资源配置与政策环境差异等。因此,要立足国内大循环、协调区域经济发展和协调区域科技发展水平,推进高质量国际投资与区域制造业分工优化相融合与协调发展,以破解我国区域性产能过剩的困境。

This paper extends the connotation of the capacity utilization from production to sales,estimates the capacity utilization rate of provincial marketing chain using the logarithm production model and the method of SFA based on provincial panel data in China,and measures the industrial capacity utilization rate of provinces in China. According to the relationship between overcapacity index and the capacity utilization rate,it calculates industrial overcapacity index during2001 and 2019 in China’s provinces. The main conclusions are as follows: 1) On the whole, China’s average industrial capacity utilization rate was 70.56% from 2001 to 2019,indicating slight overcapacity. From the regional perspective,the vast majority of provinces(municipalities) in the eastern region have reasonable capacity utilization,the central region and western region have overcapacity problem, the vast majority provinces of the central region is moderate overcapacity,and the vast majority of provinces(autonomous regions) in the western region have serious overcapacity problem. 2) From the perspective of time,China’s overcapacity index showed a downward trend,that is,the problem of overcapacity eased slightly as time went by. 3) However, according to recent studies, overcapacity in traditional industries has not been completely solved,emerging industries are in a prominent position of overcapacity,which has become a constraint factor for high-quality economic development and opening-up in China under the new development pattern. The reasons are the impact of unbalanced regional economic development level, difference of regional industrial structure, difference in technical level,differences of regional resource allocation and policy environment. Therefore,based on the great domestic cycle, it is necessary to coordinate regional economic development and the level of regional scientific and technological development, and to promote the integration and coordinated development of high-quality international investment and regional manufacturing division optimization, so as to solve the dilemma of regional overcapacity in China.