1994—2014年中国港口业与沿海区域经济增长的重心移动轨迹和时空差异分析

Study on Gravity Center Movement and Spatial-Temporal Differences of Port Industry and Economic Growth in China’s Coastal Areas between 1994 and 2014

将五大港口群作为研究对象,按照由全局→局部的分析思路,运用重心移动模型、探索性空间数据模型,建立关于沿海区域港口业和沿海区域经济增长的综合评价指标体系,定量分析1994—2014年间中国港口业与沿海区域经济增长的时空差异演变与特征。结果表明:在重心移动轨迹上,沿海区域港口业和经济增长重心集中在南部并且有逐渐向长三角移动的趋势。在全局层面上,港口业在时间和空间维度上呈现由显著正相关到显著负相关的时空差异;沿海区域经济增长在时间和空间维度上始终保持空间正相关;港口业-沿海经济增长在时间和空间维度上表现为"正-负-正"三个阶段。在局部层面上,港口业H-H型区域由珠三角向长三角移动,L-L型区域集中在西南沿海区域和环渤海西部;沿海区域经济水平H-H型区域集中在珠三角和长三角以及环渤海南部,整体趋势无太大变化,L-L型区域集中在河北、广西、海南;港口业-沿海经济增长L-L型区域呈现珠三角、长三角两个中心并有向周边区域扩大的趋势,L-L型区域集中在河北以及西南沿海,但两大区域的L-L型空间范围有缩减的趋势。

Taking the five port groups in China as the research objects and using the global-local analysis method,Gravity Center Movement Model and Exploratory Spatial Data Model,this paper builds a comprehensive evaluation index system to make a quantitative analysis of the spatial-temporal differences and features of port industry and economic growth in China’s coastal areas between 1994 and 2014.Results indicate that:the gravity of Chinese port industry and economic growth of coastal areas sits in southern China,and tends to move toward Yangtze River Delta.On the global aspect,port industry shows a spatial-temporal difference of time and spatial dimension from significant positive correlation to significant negative correlation;economic growth keeps a spatial consistent significant positive correlation;port industry-economic growth goes through a“positive-negative-positive”stage on temporal and spatial dimension.On the local aspect,the H-H type region of port industry is moving from Pearl River Delta to Yangtze River Delta.And L-L type region is mainly in southwestern coastal area and the west of Pan-Bohai area;the H-H type region of economic growth is mainly in Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta,with general trend remaining relatively stable.And L-L type region is mainly in Hebei,Guangxi and Hainan;two centers emerge in the L-L type region of port industry and economic growth and tend to expand toward their surrounding areas,the L-L type region center on Hebei and southwestern coastal area,but the spatial range of the two areas tends to decend.