近20年来全球经济变局与矿产勘查发展态势

Global economic changes and mineral exploration trends in the last 20 years

以2008年金融危机为转折,全球经济由繁荣发展转入低速增长,世界GDP年均增速由3.5%降至2.3%;全球矿产资源供需增速明显减缓,矿产产量年均增速由3.6%降至1.5%;全球矿产勘查投入由持续增长转为下行调整。全球经济呈现“东升西降”格局,产业链呈现区域化、本土化趋势;面对矿产资源供需区域持续分离态势,欧美出台措施鼓励国内矿产勘查开发;美国、加拿大、澳大利亚等发达国家勘查投入占比总体呈上升趋势,矿产勘查活动回归本土趋势明显。应对气候变化,碳达峰、碳中和成为全球目标,新一轮科技革命促进新产业新业态正在兴起;矿业企业绿色转型趋势明显,黄金与能源金属矿产勘查、低碳矿产品供给受到矿业企业关注和重视。受新冠肺炎疫情、贸易保护政策、货币宽松政策等影响,近两年全球产业链供应链出现失衡现象;矿产品价格持续大幅攀升,脱离了全球矿产资源需求的基本面;矿业企业运营收益大幅上升,矿产勘查投入随之大幅增加。展望未来,矿产品价格将回归矿产资源供需基本面,全球矿产勘查或仍将延续调整趋势,积蓄力量等待全球经济新一轮繁荣周期的到来。

At a turning point in 2008 Global Financial Crisis,the world economy entered a stage of low growth from an economic booming stage with annual growth rate down to 2.3%from^(3).5%.The growth rate of global mineral supply and demand slowed down obviously,with annual growth rate of mineral production down to 1.5%from^(3).6%.Global exploration expenditures shifted from consistently increasing to dropping and fluctuating downward.The world economy reoriented with rising in the east and relatively falling in the west,and industrial chains became more regionalized and localized.In order to avoid excessive dependence on foreign minerals for industrial development,the west countries put forward some measures to encourage domestic exploration activities.In recent years,the proportions of United States,Canada,and Australia in global exploration rose year by year,mineral exploration investment from these countries returned domestically.Responding to climate changes,carbon neutrality has become a global goal.New industries and new business models come into being,driven by the new sci-tech revolution.The miners strived for green transformation,and pay more attention to the exploration of gold and metals used in energy resources and the supply of low carbon products and services.The occurrence of the COVID-19 pandemic,trade protectionism,and quantitative easing monetary,resulted in a tight balance between the supply and demand of mineral products in the late 2 years,accompanied by constantly rising of mineral product prices.The mining companies reported high financial performance,and exploration expenditure increased greatly.In future,the prices of mineral products will probably return the levels according to the supply/demand fundamentals,and global mineral exploration expenditures will continue the fluctuations at the recession stage until the next prosperity stage.