企业发展预期的创新效应:基于上市企业年报文本挖掘的实证

Innovation Effect of Enterprise Development Expectation:Empirical Study Based on Text Mining of Annual Reports of Listed Companies

基于2010—2018年沪深上市企业年报文本,运用计算机文本挖掘技术并结合情感分析,测算企业发展预期指数,进而揭示企业发展预期对企业创新的影响效应与作用机制。结果表明:①企业发展机遇预期、前景预期、计划预期对企业创新均具有正向驱动作用,而风险预期提高会抑制创新产出,但没有证据支持资金预期对创新存在影响;②基于财政刺激机制的检验结果表明,税收优惠并未显著放大企业发展机遇预期、前景预期对创新的促进作用,也未缓解风险预期对创新的抑制作用,但会强化计划预期和资金预期对创新的促进作用,政府补助有利于强化企业机遇预期、前景预期、计划预期和资金预期对创新的促进作用,但未缓解风险预期对创新的抑制作用;③融资约束抑制企业发展机遇预期、计划预期和资金预期对创新的促进作用,但未强化风险预期对创新的抑制作用;④不同行业性质和股权性质下企业发展预期对创新的影响存在差异。

Innovation is the source of economic growth and the main driving force for sustained economic growth,and the decisive factor in promoting the high-quality development of China's economy.It also plays a vital role in the development of enterprises.However,innovation has the characteristics of high risk,large investment and long cycle,so that innovation are easily affected by inexclusiveness,indivisibility and uncertainty.Therefore,how to improve innovation output has always been the foundation of an enterprise in a highly competitive market environment.How to improve the innovation level of the enterprise,seize market resources has been the focus of the enterprise management.Starting from the development of the enterprise itself,this paper changes the traditional portrayal of the influencing factors of innovation.Based on the annual report text of the listed enterprises in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2010 to 2018,we use computer text mining technology with sentiment analysis to measure the enterprise development expectation index,study the impact of enterprise development expectations on enterprise innovation and examine the innovation effect of enterprise development expectations under the financial stimulus mechanism and financing constraint mechanism.From the perspectives of industry heterogeneity,equity heterogeneity and economic development level heterogeneity,we study the innovative effects of enterprise development expectations in different industries,equity and economic development levels,the research results show that:(1)Enterprise development opportunity expectations,prospect expectations,and plan expectations all have a positive driving effect on corporate innovation,and the increase in risk expectations inhibits innovation output,but there is no evidence to support the impact of funding expectations on innovation.(2)The test results based on the fiscal stimulus mechanism showed that tax incentives did not significantly amplify the promotion effect of enterprise development opportunities and prospects on innovation,nor did it alleviate the inhibitory effect of risk expectations on innovation,but magnified plan expectations and funding expectations’promotion effect of innovation;government subsidies are conducive to amplifying the promotion effect of enterprise opportunity expectations,prospect expectations,plan expectations and funding expectations on innovation,but it does not alleviate the inhibitory effect of risk expectations on innovation.(3)Financing constraints inhibited the promotion of innovation by enterprise development opportunity expectations,plan expectations,and funding expectations,but did not amplify the inhibitory effect of risk expectations on innovation.(4)There are differences in the impact of enterprise development expectations on innovation under the nature of different industries and the nature of equity.Based on the conclusions,this article has the following enlightenment.(1)Enterprise development expectations are conducive to promoting enterprise innovation.Therefore,it is necessary to improve the company's future development opportunity expectations,prospects,plan expectations and funding expectations,while reducing enterprise development risk expectations.The government should actively improve the market environment and create a fairer market business environment,and clarify the government and market boundaries,create a fair and orderly market environment,ensure the rights of entrepreneurs,and enhance the company’s expectations for future development,to promote enterprise innovation.(2)Expanding tax incentives and government subsidies can promote enterprise innovation.The government implements preferential tax policies and government subsidy policies(fiscal stimulus)to further amplify the innovative effects of enterprise development expectations,so fiscal stimulus should continue to be implemented.However,in the process of implementing fiscal stimulus for enterprise innovation,it is necessary to increase the identification of enterprises with innovative capabilities to prevent excessive fiscal stimulus from causing enterprises to produce technological innovation inertia.(3)It is necessary to solve the problem of"difficult and expensive financing"for enterprises,broaden corporate financing channels and ease corporate financing constraints.On the one hand,companies should actively expand existing financing channels to solve the problem,the single source of corporate financing.On the other hand,enterprises should strengthen financial supervision,plan on the use of financing funds,encourage financing funds to enter enterprises in the R&D stage and promote enterprise innovation.The research helps to clarify the effect and mechanism of enterprise development expectations on enterprise innovation,and provides an important theoretical reference for improving the innovation capabilities of Chinese enterprises.Meanwhile there are some points to be improved in this paper.The Bert model with the highest classification accuracy is used to classify the information of the enterprises'future outlook in the annual message,divide the enterprise development expectation into five types and calculate the enterprise development expectation index combined with emotion analysis.Before text analysis,the text of the enterprise development of the annual report needs to be extracted and screened,but there may be deviations in the screening process.What'more,the annual reports of enterprises in this paper are mainly collected manually.The selected samples are listed enterprises before 2010,which means the listed enterprises after 2010 are not considered.From the perspective of innovation,this paper studies the impact of enterprise development expectation on innovation,but the following problems need to be further explored.What factors affect enterprise development expectation?Do enterprises enjoy special policies and can micro factors such as entrepreneur management ability and entrepreneur self-confidence reverse affect enterprise development expectation?From the actual situation,at present,most Chinese enterprises have the problem of"disenchantment from reality to emptiness".Is such a trend related to enterprise development expectation?Can high-risk expectations affect enterprise investment bias,and is the preference of enterprise management for physical investment and financial investment different under different enterprise development risk expectation?The above problems are the direction of future research.