北美后页岩革命时代带来的启示

Enlightenment from the post shale revolution era in North America

2014年国际油价暴跌并持续低位运行,2016年开始北美迎来了主要从事页岩油气开发能源公司的倒闭潮。2020年6月28日美国页岩油气开发先导者Chesapeake能源公司宣布破产保护,引起了全球能源行业的高度关注。业界议论更多的是页岩油气开发能否可持续发展,甚至有人认为北美页岩油气开发可能是新的旁氏骗局。通过总结美国页岩革命的兴起、发展、成果、社会效益及其成功的原因,从多个维度对低油价导致的美国页岩油气危机进行分析,对比Chesapeake能源公司和EOG能源公司两家典型的主要从事页岩油气开发公司截然不同的发展路径和结果,总结得出当前低油价环境下页岩油气得以持续开发的基本条件为:拥有良好的油气资产,具备自身成本控制和盈利能力,保证现金流为正,控制投资风险,力图对国内非常规油气发展有一定的启示。

The international oil price plummeted in 2014 and continued to operate at a low level.Since 2016,North America energy companies mainly engaged in shale oil and gas development have ushered in the bankruptcies.On June 28,2020,Chesapeake Energy Company,the leader of shale oil and gas development in the United States,announced bankruptcy protection,attracting great attention of the global energy industry.The industry concerns more about whether shale oil and gas development can be sustainable,and some even regard that shale oil and gas development in North America may be a new Ponzi scheme.By summarizing the rise,development,achievements,social benefits and the reasons for the success of the American shale revolution,the shale oil and gas crisis in North America are analyzed from multiple factors which is caused by low oil prices,and the development paths and results of Chesapeake and EOG,the two typical energy companies mainly engaged in shale oil and gas development in North America are compared.Finally,the basic conditions for the sustainable development of shale oil and gas under the current low oil price environment are summarized,including high-quality oil and gas assets,cost control and profitability,positive cash flow,and investment risk control,so as to provide some enlightenment for the development of unconventional oil and gas in China.