阿克苏断层氢气浓度动态特征及其映震效能

Dynamic characteristics of fault hydrogen concentration in Aksu and its earthquake reflecting efficiency

首先对阿克苏断层氢气浓度观测资料的周期成分进行了时频分析,然后分别利用线性回归和互相关方法分析了气温、气压与氢气浓度年周期成分的关系,并利用Molchan图表法对阿克苏断层氢气的映震效能进行了定量检验。结果显示:①阿克苏断层氢气浓度具有清晰的年周期和半日周期成分;②阿克苏断层氢气浓度的年周期动态变化与气温具有显著的正相关性,与气压的相关性一般,表明其年周期变化主要受气温影响;③阿克苏断层氢气浓度异常对观测点周边中强以上地震的反应较灵敏,映震效果较好。

This paper firstly analyzed the periodic components of the fault hydrogen concentration observation data in Aksu,and then explored the relationship between temperature,atmospheric pressure and the annual periodic components of hydrogen concentration using the linear regression and cross-correlation methods,respectively.At the same time,the Molchan error diagram method was used to quantitatively verify the earthquake reflecting efficiency of fault hydrogen in Aksu.The results show that:①Fault hydrogen concentration in Aksu has clear annual and semi-daily periodic components;②There is a significant positive correlation between the annual dynamic changes of fault hydrogen concentration and temperature,and a general correlation between the annual dynamic changes of hydrogen concentration and atmo-spheric pressure,indicating that the annual periodic changes of hydrogen concentration are mainly affected by temperature.The results from Molchan error diagram method show that the fault hydrogen concentration anomaly in Aksu is more sensitive to moderate-strong earthquakes around the observation point,suggesting better earthquake reflecting efficiency.