摘要
利用中国2400余个国家级气象台站观测数据插值得到的1961~2018年逐日网格降水资料,综合运用回归分析和Morlet小波变换等方法,分析了华南多年暴雨和区域性暴雨的时空变化特征,揭示了华南暴雨的变化规律。结果表明:1961~2018年,华南全年暴雨日数和暴雨雨量大值区域分布在广东、广西、福建沿海一带及海南省和广西北部,夏季暴雨日数和暴雨雨量最大,其次是春季。在广西北部至广西、湖南、广东三省交界处、广东南部、福建和海南省,全年暴雨日数、雨量和强度的增加趋势最显著,夏季的区域平均值增长速率最大,其次是秋季。华南区域性暴雨日数和过程数呈单峰型分布,一年中均可出现,最大值出现在6月。区域性暴雨日数和过程数多年平均值为28 d a^(-1)和16.5 a^(-1),上升速率分别为0.15 d a^(-1)和0.097 a^(-1),四季中夏季的上升速率最快,最慢的是秋季。平均单次过程持续日数和最大单次过程持续日数在冬季均以0.015 d a^(-1)的速率显著上升,在春季却呈现下降的趋势。华南暴雨和区域性暴雨各要素在全年和四季的波动变化中不同程度地表现出准3 a、准14 a和准18 a的周期变化,2000年后,全年暴雨和区域性暴雨各要素准18 a的长周期和准3 a的短周期振荡非常显著。
The daily grid precipitation data from 1961 to 2018 were obtained by interpolating data from more than 2400 national meteorological stations in China.Based on this data set,regression analysis,Morlet wavelet transform,and other methods are employed to analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of the rainstorm and regional rainstorm in South China;moreover,the variation laws of heavy precipitation are revealed.Results show that from 1961 to 2018,the maximum number of annual rainstorm days and amount of rainstorm rainfall in South China are distributed in the coastal areas of Guangdong,Guangxi,and Fujian,as well as Hainan Province and the northern part of Guangxi.The number of rainstorm days and amount of rainfall are the largest in summer,followed by spring.From the northern part of Guangxi to the junction of Guangxi,Hunan,and Guangdong provinces,the southern part of Guangdong,Fujian,and Hainan provinces,the increasing trend of rainstorm days,rainfall,and intensity are the most significant.The regional mean increasing trend is the highest in summer,followed by autumn.Additionally,the number of regional rainstorm days and processes in South China presents the occurrence of a single peak distribution,which could occur throughout the year.Moreover,the maximum value appears in June.The annual average number of regional rainstorm days and processes are 28 d a^(-1) and 16.5 a^(-1),and the increasing rates are 0.15 d a^(-1) and 0.097 a^(-1).In four seasons,the increasing rate is the fastest during summer and the slowest in autumn.The average and maximum of a single course duration increase significantly at the rate of 0.015 d a^(-1) in winter but show a decreasing trend in spring.For the periodic change,the South China rainstorm and regional rainstorm show quasi-three-year,quasi-14-year,and quasi-18-year cycle changes to different degrees in annual and seasonal fluctuations.After 2000,the quasi-18-year long period and quasi-three-year short-period oscillations of annual rainstorms and regional rainstorms are extremely significant.
作者
李娴茹
韦志刚
刘雨佳
王欢
马力
郭仕侗
LI Xianru;WEI Zhigang;LIU Yujia;WANG Huan;MA Li;GUO Shitong(State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology,Faculty of Geographical Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875;Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Guangzhou),Guangzhou 511458)
出处
《气候与环境研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第1期1-18,共18页
Climatic and Environmental Research
基金
国家重点研发计划项目2017YFC1502301
南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(广州)人才团队引进重大专项GML2019ZD0601
国家自然科学基金项目41875089。
关键词
华南
暴雨
区域性暴雨
时空特征
South China
Rainstorm
Regional rainstorm
Spatial and temporal characteristics