1991~2019年中国农业生态系统旱涝脆弱性评估

Droughts and Floods Vulnerability Assessment of China’s Agricultural Ecosystem from 1991 to 2019

近几十年来我国旱涝事件频发,同时农业是对气候变化最为敏感的产业部门,因此本文基于“敏感性—暴露度—适应力”脆弱性评估框架,选取敏感性、暴露度与适应力评价指标,结合层次分析法与熵权法确定指标权重,分别对1991~2019年我国农业生态系统干旱和洪涝敏感性、暴露度、适应力及脆弱性进行评估。结果表明:我国农业生态系统干旱高敏感地区分布在湖北、湖南等中南省份,而洪涝高敏感地区分布在沿海省份海南、上海和江苏,旱涝高暴露地区均分布在甘肃、河南、黑龙江,旱涝低适应力地区包括西南省份西藏、重庆、贵州和云南。总体而言,我国农业生态系统旱涝脆弱性呈现从中部向四周减弱趋势,中部省份河南和湖北属于旱涝高脆弱性水平,建议中部省份通过因地制宜调整农业生态结构,开发和采取针对旱涝灾害的应变种植、饲养和作物保护技术等措施来降低和适应其高脆弱性。

In recent decades,there has been a high frequency of droughts and floods in China,which affects the agricultural sector as it is more sensitive to climate changes than other industrial sectors.Therefore,this study aimed to evaluate the sensitivity,exposure,adaptability,and vulnerability of China’s agricultural ecosystem to droughts and floods from 1991 to 2019 via selected indicators and index weights determined by the analytic hierarchy process and entropy method.Results show that the drought-sensitive areas of the agricultural ecosystem in China are distributed in the central and southern provinces,such as Hubei and Hunan.The flood-sensitive areas are distributed in the coastal provinces of Hainan,Shanghai,and Jiangsu.Areas with high exposure to droughts and floods are found in the provinces of Gansu,Henan,and Heilongjiang.Areas with low adaptability to droughts and floods are found in the Southwestern provinces of Tibet,Chongqing,Guizhou,and Yunnan.Generally,the drought and flood vulnerability of the agricultural ecosystem in China tend to be weak from the central areas to the other areas,and Henan and Hubei belong to the central provinces with high vulnerability to droughts and floods.Therefore,to recede and adapt to the high vulnerability in the central provinces,the agricultural ecology structure in China should be adjusted according to local conditions,and measures like flexible planting and feeding and crop protection should be adopted to cope with droughts and floods.